Overview
Goldman Sachs analyst Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby, in a note published Wednesday, outlined why crude prices remain high even though Persian Gulf exports have largely recovered to last year’s averages. The bank’s analysis points to a pronounced risk premium on physical prices that has kept dated Brent near $120 a barrel despite a rebound in flows from the Gulf.
Export recovery and data
Goldman estimates that Gulf exports, when including so-called dark exports, recovered to 23.3 million barrels a day over the past week, which is in line with the 2025 average. The bank also notes that exports doubled during September. That rebound occurred even though the region faced disruptions earlier in the month.
Grigsby highlighted two specific constraints that had weighed on flows: an attack on the Saudi East-West pipeline, which disrupted shipments for nearly two weeks, and the continuing Houthi blockade of Saudi exports through the Bab al-Mandab strait. Despite those impediments, the report says higher shipments via the Strait of Hormuz, including ship-to-ship transfers, supported the recovery.
"Estimated crude exports accounted for nearly 90% of the September recovery in Persian Gulf exports, reaching 19mb/d (108% of their 2025 average) over the last week," wrote the analyst.
Goldman added that Saudi exports more than doubled in September to 11.6 million barrels a day, while the United Arab Emirates also exported above its 2025 average. The bank’s review of satellite imagery reportedly showed no seaborne crude or main refined product exports from Iran during the month.
Market balance and price outlook
On balance, Goldman estimates the global oil market was roughly balanced in September. The firm projects Brent to moderate to $85 a barrel by year-end and to $80 in 2027.
Yet that projection sits alongside a large gap between futures-derived expectations and current physical prices. Goldman explains the persistence of dated Brent near $120 a barrel as a function of a heightened risk premium. The bank states that the premium "likely reflects 1) downside risks to supply from escalation threatening long-term oil production, 2) record low global stocks (excluding OECD commercial stocks) and hence the desire to rebuild stocks quickly given escalation risks."
Implications
The note implies that while physical flows from the Gulf have rebounded to recent norms, market participants remain willing to pay significantly more for immediate physical barrels because of the potential for escalation and the current low inventory backdrop outside of OECD commercial holdings.
Summary
Goldman Sachs reports that Persian Gulf crude exports recovered to roughly 23.3 million barrels per day, matching 2025 averages, and that Saudi and UAE volumes rose, with Saudi exports reaching 11.6 million barrels a day in September. Nevertheless, dated Brent remains elevated near $120 a barrel due to a sizable risk premium tied to escalation risks and low global stocks (excluding OECD commercial stocks). The bank sees Brent easing to $85 by year-end and $80 in 2027.