Oil markets were largely flat in early Asian trade on Thursday, reflecting a tug of war between supply concerns linked to stalled peace talks and signs that Middle Eastern crude shipments are starting to recover.
Price snapshot: By 0045 GMT, Brent crude futures were trading at $98.15 a barrel, up $0.12 or 0.1%. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was at $90.35 a barrel, down $0.07 or 0.1%. Both contracts had gained about $1 a barrel on the previous trading day.
Market momentum in September showed notable monthly gains: Brent posted roughly a 14% increase for the month, its largest monthly rise since July, while WTI rose by about 5% for September.
Analysts said the market remained caught between lingering supply worries and renewed flows out of the Gulf. Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities, said that buying persisted because of supply concerns as peace talks stalled, but that selling pressure also emerged as Middle Eastern exports showed signs of recovery. Tazawa highlighted Saudi Arabia's resumption of shipments from its Red Sea port of Yanbu as a significant factor in that dynamic.
Tazawa added that a new market catalyst - for example, meaningful progress in negotiations - would likely be required for WTI to drop below an immediate technical support level at $88 a barrel.
Diplomatic developments added to the market's cautious tone. Qatar expressed hope that shuttle diplomacy between Tehran and Washington might produce a breakthrough. At the same time, US President Donald Trump publicly denied media reports that had cited US officials saying he was prepared to offer Iran sanctions relief and the release of frozen Iranian funds in exchange for concrete steps by Tehran on its nuclear programme.
On the supply front, Saudi Arabia restarted tanker loadings from Yanbu after reopening operations on its East-West Pipeline, a move that helped boost flows from the region.
Goldman Sachs estimated that Gulf oil exports - including so-called "dark" shipments where vessels turn off location transponders - had recovered to 23.3 million barrels per day over the most recent week, putting exports roughly in line with the firm's 2025 average. The bank noted that exports had doubled in September, according to a client note.
Adding to the backdrop of steady output, two people with knowledge of OPEC+ discussions told Reuters that the oil-producing group was likely to keep production targets unchanged for November when it convenes on Sunday.
Data from the US Energy Information Administration introduced another wrinkle for traders. US crude inventories rose by 922,000 barrels to reach 427.3 million barrels in the week ended September 25. That outcome contrasted with a Reuters poll of analysts that had anticipated a draw of 264,000 barrels. Despite the build in crude stocks, fuel inventories fell sharply, a pattern the EIA attributed to strong seasonal and global demand.
The combination of recovering Gulf exports, mixed inventory signals from the US, and uncertain diplomatic progress left oil prices largely rangebound, with market participants watching closely for any fresh catalyst to drive a clearer directional move.
Context and implications:
- Short-term price direction appears sensitive to developments in Middle East diplomacy and shipping flows.
- Supply-side indicators such as resumed Saudi loadings and Goldman Sachs' export estimate have weighed on upside pressure.
- US inventory data showed an unexpected crude build but significant draws in fuel stocks, underscoring strong demand patterns.