Oil climbed on Thursday after media reports said the United States was sending more military forces to the Middle East and that President Donald Trump expected to resume strikes on Iran in November.
At 15:40 ET (19:40 GMT), Brent crude futures for December delivery rose 4.6% to $102.58 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for November delivery advanced 3.1% to $93.18 a barrel. The front-month Brent contract, which expired on Wednesday, had settled at $103.50 in the prior session. Brent recorded roughly a 14% gain in September - its largest monthly rise since July - while WTI increased by about 5% over the same period.
Troop movements and leadership comments
The Wall Street Journal reported that Washington was dispatching a third aircraft-carrier strike group and additional Marine Corps ships to the Middle East, citing U.S. officials. Those movements would add about 9k to 10k more troops to the region by the end of November, the report said. The same report indicated that President Trump told aides he expects to resume strikes on Iran in November.
When speaking to reporters on Thursday, the president said he had to "make a decision" on Iran and added: "They'll either sign a very fair deal, or they won't exist any longer." He also asserted that Washington controlled the Strait of Hormuz and repeated a claim that more oil was coming out of the waterway "than at any time in the history of the strait, and that includes before the war."
Supply flows and inventory signals
Media reports have also pointed to signs of a partial recovery in Gulf oil flows, a development that could ease some immediate supply concerns. Kpler data showed Middle East crude exports reached 16.328 million barrels per day in September, their highest level since the conflict began in February.
Operational changes appear to have contributed to the increase. Saudi Arabia resumed tanker loadings from the Red Sea port of Yanbu after restarting operations at its East-West Pipeline, which runs across the width of the kingdom.
Walt Chancellor, an energy strategist at Macquarie, noted that oil volumes through the Strait of Hormuz continued to rise and were bringing the global oil balance closer to equilibrium. He highlighted that for the week ending Sep. 29, there was just under 11 MBD of crude and clean product transiting the Strait, and nearly 10 MBD since hostilities resumed on Aug. 30. Chancellor also said global crude inventories appear to be drawing at a slower pace since the end of August, helped by a resurgence of oil-on-water.
Despite those increases, regional flows remain below where they were before the conflict. Kpler's numbers showed Middle East exports in September were still about 3.2 million barrels per day lower than in February, a gap that leaves the market vulnerable to any renewed disruption.
Diplomacy and stall points
While supply concerns have been the main catalyst behind recent price moves, the lack of diplomatic progress between the United States and Iran also played a role in oil's September gains. Expectations that a breakthrough might be reached at the United Nations General Assembly in New York were unmet, as President Trump and Iranian counterpart Masoud Pezeshkian delivered heated speeches and on-the-sidelines talks produced no concrete results.
Earlier in the week, President Trump rejected a Tehran proposal that would have reopened the strait within seven days in exchange for the cessation of hostilities, the lifting of an American naval blockade and economic sanctions, and the unfreezing of Iranian assets. Iran, however, said on Wednesday that it had received a U.S. response to its latest proposal.
Separately, a media report said that Iran's foreign minister in private discussions had suggested Tehran might be willing to restore access to nuclear inspectors in return for sanctions relief, according to people familiar with those talks. If such a concession were confirmed, it could alter the existing diplomatic impasse - though the report itself represents only a private discussion rather than a formal agreement.
Diesel market focus
Refined product markets, and diesel in particular, remained a prominent concern. President Trump said earlier in the week he was still discussing a possible ban on U.S. diesel exports, although the White House had previously denied a separate report that it was preparing a 90-day blanket ban.
U.S. diesel prices reached a record $6.5276 a gallon last week, and inventories of the fuel in the United States remain at historically low levels. That combination has pushed diesel to the center of policy discussions, with implications for refiners, transport sectors, and industrial users that rely on the fuel.
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright told Fox News he was "highly confident" that Europe could help ease diesel prices by drawing down emergency diesel inventories. Macquarie's Chancellor said the challenge is not purely a diesel issue or even solely a refined product issue, but rather a broader global energy problem.
Chancellor argued that the United States is tightly linked across both refinery inputs - crude imports and exports - and refinery outputs - product imports and exports. He observed that the magnitude of the shock, roughly ~4 MBD of global inventory draws across the conflict, is too large to expect finely tuned, targeted solutions without substantial downstream impacts and unintended consequences. "In this sense, that the U.S. push has taken on an apparent global dimension is understandable," he added.
What this means for markets
Oil market participants are balancing reports of rising Middle East export volumes with the persistent gap versus pre-conflict flows and heightened geopolitical risk. Prices remain sensitive to developments on both the diplomatic and military fronts, as well as to refined product balances, particularly diesel. Any further material escalation or renewed disruption to shipments from the region could quickly tighten markets again, while diplomatic movement or additional flow restorations would likely ease near-term pressure.
Note: The situation remains fluid and market participants are watching troop deployments, diplomatic exchanges, refinery balances, and inventory measures for signs of change.