Overview
Gasoline refining margins in Northwest Europe climbed to $46.74 per barrel on Thursday, marking the highest level since mid-2022. The move coincided with a sharp reduction in gasoline inventories held in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub, where independent stocks fell materially during the week.
Trades in the barge market
Trading activity in the ARA barge market reflected the tighter backdrop. About 13,000 metric tons of gasoline E5 barges were reported to have changed hands, with Trafigura, Aramco and Equinor listed as sellers to MB Energy and Vitol. In a separate set of transactions, roughly 16,000 metric tons of gasoline E10 barges traded, with Exxon Mobil and Shell recorded as sellers to Varo, MB and BP.
Inventory movement and drivers
Data released on Thursday by Dutch consultancy Insights Global showed that gasoline stocks kept independently in the ARA hub fell by approximately 14% over the week to 752,000 metric tons. That level represents the lowest inventory position in nearly five years for those independently held stocks, according to the consultancy.
Lars van Wageningen of Insights Global pointed to higher exports and limited imports as primary reasons for the stock decline. He also noted that Rhine water levels are rising, an observation included in the consultancy’s commentary.
Analyst commentary on related product flows
Jorge Molinero, an analyst at Sparta Commodities, said the gradual return of Middle East naphtha supply has helped to erode a war-peak premium that built through late July. Molinero added that arbitrage opportunities to Asia remain viable, indicating that price differentials continue to support some volumes moving out of the region.
Implications
The combination of elevated refining margins, significant barge transactions and a sizable weekly inventory draw in the ARA hub paints a picture of a tightened near-term gasoline market in Northwest Europe. Market participants and observers have taken note of both the trade flows and the shifting supply dynamics highlighted by the consultancy and the commodity analyst.
This report presents the trading and inventory data released by market participants and the quoted analysis from the named industry analysts and consultancy.