European and British wholesale natural gas benchmarks eased on Thursday as traders locked in profits after a pronounced multi-day rally that had driven benchmark curves past highs recorded during the fifth month of the Middle East conflict.
Market moves
The Dutch front-month contract, the main continental European benchmark, retreated 1.7% to 72.23 euros per megawatt-hour (MWh), stepping back from the multi-year peak of 74.32 euros reached earlier in the week. In the United Kingdom, the NBP wholesale gas contract fell 2.7% to 178.08 pence per therm, pulling back after having breached 183 pence in the previous session, a level not seen since late 2023.
Traders and energy desks characterized Thursday's price action more as technical profit-taking than a fundamental turn in market direction. After prices pierced conflict-driven resistance levels, market participants said short-term selling pressure had moderated the recent advance across European hubs.
Supply risks remain elevated
Despite the retreat in front-month levels, geopolitical risk premia continue to be priced into forward curves. Direct military engagements between U.S. forces and Iran have raised the prospect of sustained disruptions to global liquefied natural gas (LNG) transit routes.
According to the reporting in this article, a second round of U.S. air strikes targeting Iranian military targets in the Persian Gulf, together with retaliatory Iranian missile strikes on U.S. facilities in Jordan, has effectively choked off commercial navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Satellite vessel-tracking indicates that commercial tanker traffic through the bottleneck remains at only a small fraction of normal pre-war levels.
The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly one-fifth of global seaborne LNG shipments, chiefly those originating from Qatar. With that passage constrained, European energy importers face heightened competition from Asian utilities to secure replacement spot LNG cargoes sourced from the Atlantic basin. That competition is cited as a factor keeping structural price floors elevated.
Implications for markets and sectors
Even with short-term profit-taking easing prompt prices, the persistence of geopolitical risk and disrupted shipping flows means forward curves are still reflecting significant premium. Energy utilities, gas traders, and shipping and logistics operators are among the market participants most directly affected by the current dynamics, as are end-user industries exposed to wholesale gas costs.
In sum, Thursday's price pullback represents a technical calming after a strong rally rather than evidence of easing underlying supply concerns tied to the conflict and maritime disruptions.