Bernstein analysts examined the potential impact of a forecast Super El Nino in 2026-27 on global liquefied natural gas demand and concluded that the effect is unlikely to be material. Even if the weather event becomes one of the strongest on record, the firm estimates the reduction in Asian LNG imports could be less than 1 billion cubic feet per day (BCFD) - about 1% of global LNG imports.
To assess the relationship between El Nino-driven temperature shifts and LNG consumption, the analysts used Japan as a proxy for Asia. They cited Japan's sensitivity to El Nino weather patterns and its heavy reliance on imported LNG to represent regional trends.
The research team found a clear link between heating degree days - a metric of heating demand - and LNG consumption. By contrast, they observed virtually no correlation between cooling degree days and LNG use. Under the Super El Nino scenario modeled by the analysts, Japanese winter heating degree days would fall by 19%.
Despite that large decline in heating degree days, the analysts estimate Japanese LNG consumption would drop by only 2%, arriving at approximately 9.1 BCFD. They attribute this muted demand response to a substantial baseload component of LNG consumption that is relatively insensitive to short-term weather changes.
Extending a 2% demand reduction across the rest of Asia, Bernstein calculates, would trim regional LNG imports by less than 0.7 BCFD. That reduction translates to roughly 1% of global LNG imports and, the analysts note, would sit comfortably within historical year-to-year variability in Asian imports - which have ranged from an 11% decline to a 23% increase.
Bernstein emphasized that "structural and market factors" are likely to exert a larger influence on LNG demand than temperature variations tied to El Nino. Among these factors the analysts listed storage levels, fuel-switching economics, LNG prices, coal markets and the risk of supply disruptions as having greater potential to move demand.
In short, while a Super El Nino could produce significantly warmer winters across parts of Asia, Bernstein's analysis indicates the direct impact on global LNG demand would be modest and fall within normal fluctuations, with broader market and structural dynamics more likely to determine near-term demand outcomes.