Analysts polled in September raised their outlook for 2026 oil prices, citing sustained disruptions to exports from the Gulf that have counterbalanced concerns about demand growth. The survey of 30 economists and analysts projects that benchmark Brent crude will average $89.05 a barrel in 2026, while U.S. crude is forecast to average $83.90 a barrel. Forecasts for the average Brent price ranged from $77.27 to $97.60.
Respondents pointed to the persistence of constraints on flows through the Strait of Hormuz as a central factor underpinning higher price expectations. Several analysts indicated that market participants increasingly regard a near-term, full restoration of exports through the strait as unlikely, forcing inventories to shoulder much of the supply shortfall.
On this point, Suvro Sarkar, head of energy research at DBS Bank, said:
"We are not betting on a resolution to the conflict within the next three to six months. Significant upside risks to our forecasts exist if conflict continues to escalate instead of dialling down."
Different institutions are framing the outlook with varying assumptions about how shipping conditions and Gulf flows will evolve. HSBC described its base-case scenario as assuming only gradual improvements in shipping conditions and a "structurally impaired" Hormuz, with liquids flows recovering slowly from current levels and remaining far below the roughly 19-20 million barrels per day (bpd) that passed through the strait before the conflict.
Goldman Sachs provided a recent operational snapshot, estimating that Gulf oil exports - including so-called "dark exports" by ships operating with their location transponders turned off - have recovered to 23.3 million barrels per day over the last week. Goldman noted this level is in line with their 2025 average, reflecting a doubling of exports in September, according to its note.
Another focal point for analysts is China, whose inventory behavior has emerged as a major unknown. Many argued that China, the world's largest crude importer, spent much of the conflict drawing down substantial stockpiles that it had built before hostilities began. That drawdown reduced China's immediate need to compete for cargoes in global markets, tempering near-term global buying pressure.
That dynamic has shifted recently: Chinese imports rose over the past two months and reached nearly 9 million bpd in August, although that level remains below historical norms. Davide Tabarelli, president of Nomisma Energia, commented on the role of China's stocks:
"Chinese inventories are currently the main unknown in the equation, as they turned out to be much larger than estimated at the start of the conflict. However, they are finite and cannot cover the whole winter, so we expect Chinese buying to strengthen from current levels."
Looking ahead, most analysts in the poll said supply risks, rather than demand weakness, are likely to be the dominant price driver through 2026. The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) highlighted that slower global economic growth and weaker manufacturing activity are restraining demand expansion, which should prevent prices from approaching the extremes seen immediately after the conflict began even as geopolitical tensions remain elevated.
The EIU also forecasts a substantial inventory draw in 2026 as consuming countries use emergency and commercial stockpiles to compensate for reduced Gulf exports.
Beyond 2026, a majority of analysts expect the market to revert to surplus conditions during 2027 as shipping conditions improve, Gulf production gradually recovers and non-OPEC supply continues to expand. Until then, the balance between constrained flows through the Strait of Hormuz, the pace of Chinese restocking, and subdued demand growth will shape price trajectories.
In sum, the September survey indicates a market where supply-side disruption remains the key near-term risk, inventories are expected to decline materially in 2026, and a return to surplus is not widely anticipated until 2027 if shipping and production trends normalize.