SoftBank Group is widely expected to report another sizable quarterly profit as gains from its OpenAI investment continue to prop up results, yet questions over rising debt to fund that exposure are increasing.
Analysts surveyed by LSEG put SoftBank’s net profit for the January-March quarter at 236 billion yen, based on the average of seven forecasts. The company’s earnings are known to swing significantly between quarters and frequently depart from analyst expectations.
Investors’ enthusiasm stems largely from SoftBank’s concentrated exposure to OpenAI. TD Cowen analyst Krish Sankar estimates that SoftBank’s 11% holding in the artificial intelligence developer would have been worth about $80 billion at the end of March, compared with $54.4 billion at the end of December. OpenAI’s valuation jumped to $840 billion in its most recent funding round in February, underpinning much of the uplift to SoftBank’s portfolio.
TD Cowen also notes that SoftBank is slated to invest an additional $30 billion in OpenAI across 2026. That continued backing could produce further gains if OpenAI’s planned public listing, currently discussed for late 2026 or early 2027, proceeds as anticipated, Sankar wrote.
However, the depth of SoftBank’s commitment to a single private company has prompted unease among some analysts and investors. Observers have drawn parallels to prior concentrated investments that proved unsustainable, highlighting the risks of heavy exposure to a single venture.
Jefferies analyst Atul Goyal observed that SoftBank has supplied most of the capital in recent funding rounds that helped drive OpenAI’s rising valuation, and added that SoftBank is borrowing increasingly to meet those obligations.
Following OpenAI’s latest round, S&P Global Ratings revised SoftBank’s credit outlook to negative, stating that "SoftBank’s asset liquidity and quality of its portfolio, and its financial capacity are likely to deteriorate because of its additional huge investment in OpenAI." That assessment reflects concern that SoftBank’s funding profile could be weakened by further large investments in the private AI firm.
SoftBank has said it secured a 40 billion dollar bridge loan in March to support its OpenAI payment. Still, media reports have suggested the group had to pare down a proposed additional margin loan that would have been backed by its OpenAI stake, citing creditor hesitation. Separately, reports said SoftBank planned to form and list an AI and robotics company in the United States as early as this year with an aimed valuation of $100 billion, potentially as a way to offset investment commitments. SoftBank declined to comment on those media reports.
Analysts are also focused on the company’s other funding needs. TD Cowen’s Sankar estimated SoftBank faces a further $25 billion of investments to fund in 2026, comprised of roughly $16 billion earmarked for Stargate data centre developments and $9 billion tied to the acquisitions of ABB Robotics and DigitalBridge.
Despite the financing questions, market appetite for SoftBank shares has been strong. The stock has nearly doubled since the start of April and is trading close to its record high of 6,923 yen reached in October of last year. Some analysts see room for additional upside.
At the end of April, Nomura analyst Daisaku Masuno raised his share price target to 7,500 yen, citing confidence in the company’s long-term potential to pursue founder and CEO Masayoshi Son’s ambitions. "While the upside potential has narrowed due to recent gains, Nomura believes that the catalyst for future price increases will be progress in the company’s own initiatives, such as the development of its proprietary AI accelerator and its AI robotics business," Masuno wrote.
SoftBank’s trajectory illustrates a tension between near-term value gains driven by a concentrated, high-performing private asset and the longer-term financing demands that such concentration imposes. Credit watchers, investors and analysts are pressing for clearer signals on how the company intends to fund its commitments while managing asset liquidity and portfolio quality.
($1 = 157.0800 yen)