Piper Sandler has rolled out a revised valuation framework for Tesla that, according to the firm's lead analyst, implies investors are effectively receiving the company's Optimus humanoid robot business at no incremental cost at current equity prices.
Framework and headline conclusion
Analyst Alexander Potter framed the updated model as an effort to capture a broader set of Tesla's monetizable assets, estimating that 17 distinct product lines sum to a per-share value of roughly $400. That figure sits just under where the stock is trading, and Potter emphasized the implication in plain terms: "At $400/share, we think investors can buy Optimus for 'free,'" he wrote.
The update leaves Piper Sandler's investment view intact, with the firm continuing to carry an Overweight rating and a $500 price target on the stock.
What the model includes
Potter described this version of the valuation as "the TSLA model we've always wanted to build." It broadens the scope of revenue and profit forecasts beyond what many sell-side peers include. Explicitly considered in the updated framework are Tesla's in-house insurance business and Supercharging, plus a separate valuation for a robotaxi business that is distinct from the firm's full self-driving (FSD) software valuation.
The model also incorporates Tesla's 2025 CEO compensation plan for the first time, according to Potter.
Estimates, conservatism, and optionality
Potter acknowledged that his 2026-2027 estimates sit below consensus, a result he attributes to expectations for declining deliveries from discontinued products and a reduced contribution from regulatory credits. Despite the lower near-term estimates, he said he remains "unconcerned," noting that traditional metrics are becoming less central as FSD subscriber counts and robotaxi metrics take on greater importance in the company's valuation.
On the subject of Optimus specifically, Potter asserted that the humanoid robot and related inference-as-a-service businesses "arguably will be worth more than Tesla's other businesses combined," while also stating that he has not formally modeled those businesses yet.
Under Piper Sandler's $500 price target, Optimus and related services would account for about $100 per share of implied value; Potter indicated he believes that $100 figure is likely conservative.
Key takeaways
- Piper Sandler's updated valuation places core Tesla assets at approximately $400 per share without valuing Optimus.
- The firm retains an Overweight rating and a $500 price target, implying further upside from unmodeled businesses like Optimus and inference-as-a-service.
- The new model expands coverage to include in-house insurance, Supercharging, a standalone robotaxi valuation, and Tesla's 2025 CEO compensation plan.
Risks and uncertainties
- Potter's 2026-2027 estimates are lower than consensus, reflecting expectations for falling deliveries from discontinued products and diminished regulatory credit contributions - a near-term earnings and delivery risk for the automotive and regulatory credit-related segments.
- Key future valuation drivers such as FSD subscriber growth, robotaxi metrics, and Optimus economics remain unmodeled or early-stage, creating execution and forecasting uncertainty for autonomous services and robotics exposure.
- The optimistic optionality assigned to unmodeled businesses depends on future monetization of FSD, robotaxi operations, and inference-as-a-service, making valuation sensitive to adoption rates and service economics in mobility and AI-related services.