Nvidia shares rose 2.68% in morning trading following a Reuters exclusive that Washington has cleared licenses allowing about 10 Chinese technology companies - among them Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance and JD.com - to acquire the company’s H200 chips. The approvals have not yet led to any deliveries, leaving the potential sales stalled while high-level diplomacy unfolds.
The pricing move coincided with CEO Jensen Huang’s participation in a White House-led trip to Beijing. Huang was not originally listed among the delegation but joined after being invited by President Donald Trump, who reportedly picked him up in Alaska while en route to a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Huang told Chinese state broadcaster CCTV that he hopes the talks will capitalize on a constructive relationship between Trump and Xi to improve bilateral ties - a dynamic he framed as potentially helpful to resolving outstanding commercial issues.
Despite the licensing news, the transaction remains in limbo because, as of the Reuters report, no H200 shipments have been made. Nvidia confirmed that it holds export licenses from both Washington and Beijing to sell H200 chips to "many customers in China," and the company indicated demand currently outstrips supply. That combination - regulatory sign-offs without completed deliveries - is central to why the situation is being watched closely by investors.
Analyst activity amplified the market response. UBS reiterated a Buy rating on Nvidia while raising its price target to $275 from $245. Timothy Arcuri of UBS described the setup as favorable, saying that "the set-up for a good set of numbers and potentially positive news on capital return is a good one." Bank of America separately lifted its price target on NVDA to $320 from $300, citing an estimated $1.7 trillion AI data center total addressable market by 2030 and an expectation of accelerating AI-related sales through 2026-2027.
The calendar also added an earnings-driven catalyst. Nvidia is scheduled to report fiscal 2027 first-quarter results on May 20 after the market close. UBS is projecting first-quarter revenue of roughly $81 billion, which is above the approximately $79 billion consensus from analysts polled by FactSet. Those expectations, paired with elevated price targets, contributed to the bullish posture from some sell-side firms ahead of the print.
Marketwide sentiment provided a constructive backdrop for Nvidia’s advance. The S&P 500 rose 0.37%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.49% and the Nasdaq inched up 0.30% amid optimism tied to the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing and the recent Senate confirmation of Kevin Waller as the new Federal Reserve Chair. Those macro- and geopolitical developments helped support risk-on positioning at the same time that company-specific developments were unfolding for Nvidia.
The potential commercial importance of any resumed H200 sales is underscored by Nvidia’s historical footprint in China. Before U.S. export restrictions tightened, the company held roughly 95% of China’s advanced-chip market. At that time China accounted for about 13% of Nvidia’s revenue. Given those figures, successful shipments and sustained demand from Chinese customers could represent a meaningful revenue opportunity for the company, a point market participants have begun to price in.
Putting the pieces together, today’s rally reflected a convergence of geopolitical momentum associated with Huang’s trip to Beijing, the Reuters disclosure of U.S.-cleared H200 licenses for major Chinese buyers, and multiple analyst upgrades ahead of next week’s earnings report. Nvidia’s confirmation that it holds the necessary licenses from both U.S. and Chinese authorities - coupled with management’s assessment that demand exceeds available supply - created a multi-layered catalyst for investors.
At the same time, key uncertainties remain: no H200 chips have been delivered yet, and the ultimate timing and scale of any shipments depends on diplomatic and logistical developments. Investors will also be watching next week’s earnings release to see whether sales and capital-return news meet elevated expectations already reflected in some analyst forecasts.
Contextual note: The developments described here center on regulatory clearances and diplomatic engagement that could influence the timing of technology exports and Nvidia’s near-term revenue profile. Market moves reflect both the immediate licensing news and forward-looking expectations tied to upcoming corporate results.