Stock Markets May 12, 2026 05:06 AM

German Firms in China Report Rising Optimism, Boosted Investment Plans Despite Geopolitical Strains

Survey of 216 companies shows stronger near-term economic outlook and record appetite for investment even as Iran war and trade tensions squeeze logistics and operations

By Priya Menon

A survey of 216 German companies operating in China shows an improvement in business sentiment versus a year ago, with a higher share expecting better economic conditions in the next six months and a substantial rise in planned investment over the next two years. Firms continue to report operational impacts from the Iran war and elevated U.S.-China and EU-China trade tensions, but a larger fraction now foresee higher turnover and profits by year-end.

German Firms in China Report Rising Optimism, Boosted Investment Plans Despite Geopolitical Strains

Key Points

  • 37% of surveyed German firms in China expect the country’s economy to improve in the next six months, up 22 percentage points from last year; only 17% expect deterioration, down from 56% in 2025.
  • 61% plan to increase investments in China within two years, the highest level since 2023, while 11% plan to cut investments, three percentage points lower than in 2025.
  • Operational impacts from rising logistics costs due to the Iran war and from trade tensions (69% affected by U.S.-China tensions; 59% by EU-China tensions) are weighing on companies, even as 42% expect higher turnover and 29% expect higher profits by year-end.

Beijing, May 12 - Business confidence among German companies operating in China has strengthened compared with a year earlier, according to a survey of 216 firms carried out by the German Chamber of Commerce in China. The results point to a more positive short-term economic outlook and a renewed inclination to increase investment in the region despite ongoing geopolitical and trade-related pressures.

The survey found that 37% of respondents expect China’s economy to improve over the next six months, a rise of 22 percentage points from the prior year. By contrast, only 17% anticipate a deterioration in China’s economy over the same period, a marked decline from the 56% who expected worsening conditions in 2025.

Investment intentions have also firmed up. Nearly two thirds of the firms surveyed - 61% - plan to raise investments in China within the next two years. That share compares with 53% a year earlier and represents the highest level recorded since 2023. Conversely, 11% of respondents said they plan to reduce investments, three percentage points lower than in 2025.

Despite the improved sentiment and investment appetite, firms reported substantial operational effects from external geopolitical events. Three quarters of those surveyed said the Iran war has affected their business, with the principal consequence cited being higher logistics costs. Trade tensions are similarly influential: more than two thirds (69%) reported being affected by U.S.-China tensions, while over half (59%) cited impacts from EU-China tensions.

Those mixed pressures have not erased expectations for revenue and profit growth. Some 42% of companies expect turnover to be higher by the end of the year, up from 29% in 2025. Meanwhile, 29% of firms anticipate increased profits, a gain of 11 percentage points from the prior year.

Views on industry trajectories are split. A third of respondents (34%) foresee an improvement in how their industry will develop, while roughly the same share (33%) expect conditions to worsen. The survey captures a business community that is more optimistic than a year ago about near-term economic trends and more willing to commit capital, even as logistics and operational costs are squeezed by conflict and trade frictions.


Bottom line: German firms in China report brighter near-term economic expectations and stronger investment plans, but significant risks from the Iran war and trade tensions continue to affect logistics and operations.

Risks

  • Escalation of the Iran war is already affecting firms through higher logistics costs and could further disrupt supply chains and operating margins - this primarily affects logistics, manufacturing, and trade-dependent sectors.
  • Persistent U.S.-China trade tensions are impacting operations for a majority of firms, posing uncertainty for cross-border trade and supply-chain planning - sectors reliant on international trade and components sourcing are most affected.
  • EU-China tensions are also cited by more than half of firms as a business headwind, adding another layer of regulatory and market uncertainty for exporters and companies with Europe-China supply links.

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