As Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump prepare to meet, negotiators are signalling the possibility of fresh agricultural purchase agreements that could broaden Beijing’s imports of U.S. grains and meat. Market participants, however, say significant new commitments on soybeans - the most valuable single crop in U.S.-China farm trade - are unlikely to exceed the volumes agreed last October.
Agriculture has become one of the less fraught areas in the broader bilateral relationship, yet the precise content of any deliverables from this week’s summit remains uncertain, according to officials, traders and analysts briefed on the situation. The White House is reported to be seeking larger purchase commitments from China on soybeans and other farm products, said a person familiar with the talks.
A senior U.S. official who briefed reporters on the trip said: "They know it’s something that they need. They know it’s something we want to sell. So, whether it’s at the trip or shortly thereafter is to be seen," without naming specific products.
Joining President Trump on the visit will be more than a dozen chief executives and senior industry figures, including Brian Sikes, chair of U.S. grain trader Cargill, a White House official said.
Still, traders and analysts caution that Beijing’s appetite for additional U.S. soybeans appears limited. They point to weak Chinese demand and the availability of cheaper supplies from Brazil as key constraints on any expansion of soybean purchases beyond last year’s commitment.
Instead of a large new soybean tranche, markets are focused on potential deals for other U.S. agricultural exports - notably corn, sorghum and milling wheat - as well as beef and poultry. Some of those possibilities were indicated during high-level discussions in March.
"There’s still some space to strike purchase deals for other major U.S. exports. That could take the form of volume purchase deals for key products like corn and sorghum," said Even Rogers Pay, director at Beijing-based consultancy Trivium China.
By dollar value, those products represented a much smaller share of China’s purchases than soybeans in 2024. In the year before President Trump returned to office, China bought roughly $4.5 billion of corn, sorghum, milling wheat and related products, compared with about $12 billion in soybeans.
China’s agricultural buying patterns have shifted markedly since President Trump’s first term. In 2016, the United States supplied about 41% of China’s soybeans; by 2024 that share had fallen to roughly 20%. Last year, U.S. soybeans accounted for just 15% of China’s imports.
Markets are watching for details on how China will implement the commitment announced last year to purchase 25 million metric tons of soybeans annually through 2028 - a level that, if met, would be the highest since 2022. Pay noted that "China hasn’t ever officially confirmed the details of the agreement. It’s also not clear whether the targets apply to calendar years or crop years."
Any formal confirmation that China will increase purchases of U.S. soybeans would likely be reflected in higher Chicago soybean futures, which have already climbed to near two-month highs in part on expectations that China may step up buying.
Virginia Houston, director of government affairs for the American Soybean Association, said: "When President Trump and Xi meet, we’d be thrilled to see additional purchases from China that would put us closer to the typical amount of exports in a typical year," declining to identify a specific target volume.
China’s Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
As the summit approaches, traders, government officials and industry leaders remain watchful for announcements that could alter flows of U.S. agricultural commodities, even as observers temper expectations for any major increase in soybean shipments beyond previously stated commitments.