Berenberg has raised its recommendation on Bechtle AG to "buy" from "hold" while trimming the bank's price objective to €34 from €38. The revised target implies roughly 25% upside from the company's closing price of €26.44 on XETRA on Monday.
Analyst Andreas Wolf described management's fiscal 2026 guidance as conservative when juxtaposed with current commercial indicators. Wolf pointed to Bechtle's record order backlog, which expanded 26% year-on-year in fiscal 2025 to reach an all-time high, as evidence of stronger underlying demand. Management, Berenberg said, confirmed that January performance was good and that February had held up.
Despite these operational signs, Berenberg noted that the midpoint of management guidance implies earnings before tax growth of only about 2.5% for fiscal 2026, which the bank characterises as defensive. Part of the cautious tone is attributed to uncertainty around memory chip supply and how shortages could influence demand from small and medium enterprises (SMEs). Berenberg also cited recent instances of muted guidance reliability and an ongoing management transition as contributors to management's guarded outlook.
Company targets set out under Bechtle's Vision 2030 - specifically €10 billion in revenues and a 5% EBT margin - remain confirmed by management, according to the note from Berenberg.
On the topic of memory chip shortages, Berenberg argued that Bechtle's size and direct relationships with roughly 300 original equipment manufacturers give the company an advantage over smaller system integrators that are more exposed to supply constraints. The bank observed that higher hardware prices have been supporting front-end margin without exerting pressure on back-end margin.
Berenberg revised its financial forecasts following its reassessment. Sales estimates for 2026 were reduced by 3.2% to €6.60 billion and for 2027 by 3.5% to €6.93 billion, while a 2028 sales estimate was introduced at €7.27 billion. EBT expectations were cut by 10.2% to €335.9 million for 2026 and by 13.8% to €346.1 million for 2027.
Projected earnings per share were adjusted down to €1.89 for 2026 and €1.95 for 2027, with a 2028 EPS projection of €2.13, per Berenberg's update.
Bechtle's reported fiscal 2025 results were cited in the note: sales of €6.41 billion, EBITDA of €494.6 million and net profit of €228.3 million. Year-end net debt was referenced at €32.7 million based on company data included in the bank's analysis.
Looking ahead, Berenberg expects an EBITDA margin of 7.8% for 2026. Free cash flow per share is forecast to recover from €0.31 in 2025 to €1.71 in 2026 and to reach €2.54 by 2028.
Valuation metrics in the note show the stock trading at 13.9 times Berenberg's 2026 earnings estimate, with a 52-week trading range between €25.76 and €44.96, according to Refinitiv data cited by the bank.
Berenberg highlighted economic cyclicality in central Europe as the main risk to the thesis, noting that SME IT budgets are closely tied to broader macroeconomic conditions. The bank's upgrade reflects its view that current operational indicators and Bechtle's competitive positioning justify a more constructive stance despite management's cautious guidance.
Overview
- Berenberg upgraded Bechtle to buy, lowering the price target to €34.
- Order backlog rose 26% year-on-year in fiscal 2025 to an all-time high; January and February were reported as resilient.
- Forecasts for sales, EBT and EPS were trimmed for 2026 and 2027; a 2028 sales estimate was added.