Barclays raised its recommendation on DHL Group to "overweight" from "equal weight" on Friday and lifted its 12-month price target to €54 from €43, a move the bank linked to reduced airfreight capacity on key routes that benefits the German logistics operator. Following the update, shares climbed more than 2%.
The stock closed at €45.89 on March 5, which Barclays notes implies roughly 17.7% upside to the new target.
Barclays highlighted a sharp drop in air cargo capacity on major Asia-Europe corridors, estimating a fall of about 40% after Gulf airspace closures and the grounding of Middle East flag carriers. Those carriers account for approximately 13% of global air cargo capacity, a figure Barclays cites from TheLoadStar.
Market share metrics cited from DHL's 2026 Business Profile underscore why Barclays expects the group to benefit: DHL holds the leading Express share in Europe at 51%, in the Middle East and Africa at 63%, and in the Asia Pacific region at 57%.
On the earnings front, Barclays nudged up its FY26 EBIT estimate by roughly 2% to €6.5 billion. That figure sits about 5% above the low end of DHL's own guidance of more than €6.2 billion. Barclays observed that DHL's guidance implies no EBIT growth in Express/Supply Chain/e-commerce and a year-on-year decline in Mail & Freight Forwarding EBIT before factoring in cost savings.
The bank's model forecasts €280 million of organic Express EBIT growth before cost savings, which contrasts with the guidance implication of zero Express EBIT growth. Barclays also calculated the hypotheticals around DHL's cost savings plan: absent the company's guided €400 million of incremental cost savings, Freight Forwarding EBIT could have fallen by up to €150 million year-on-year and Post & Parcel EBIT by up to €250 million.
Barclays projects group EPS of €3.46 in FY26, rising to €4.21 by FY28. For FY26, the bank's EPS forecast compares with a Bloomberg consensus of €3.31 as of March 5. Revenue is projected to reach €86.5 billion in FY26 and €94.2 billion by FY28.
In its valuation work, Barclays reduced the conglomerate discount applied to DHL from 20% to 10%, producing a pre-discount sum-of-the-parts valuation of €60 per share. Within that framework, the Express division was assigned a 14.0x EV/EBIT multiple and valued at €51.4 billion. Barclays outlined an upside scenario that assumes near €7 billion EBIT in 2026 and points to a €61 per share level, while the downside case carries a €42 target.
Barclays also flagged that only about 5% of DHL's revenues originate in the Middle East. Nevertheless, the bank emphasized that disruptions have broader implications for the Asia-Europe trade lane, where DHL holds its strongest positions. Among the downside risks identified are a reopening of the Red Sea trade route and intensifying competition in Express services outside the United States.
Market context: The combination of elevated near-term airfreight scarcity on Asia-Europe routes and DHL's high regional market shares underpins Barclays' more constructive stance. The broker's adjustments to earnings and valuation assumptions were central to the upgrade and higher price target.
Note on projections: All numeric forecasts and valuation metrics in this report reflect Barclays' updated estimates and the comparisons to DHL's guidance and Bloomberg consensus as set out above.