Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) raised its full-year adjusted earnings outlook and topped quarterly profit expectations on Tuesday, pointing to a healthier oilseed processing environment and clearer U.S. policy on biofuel blending.
ADM said it now sees 2026 adjusted earnings in a range of $4.15 to $4.70 per share, up from its prior guidance of $3.60 to $4.25. The company characterized the current regulatory landscape as "a stable regulatory framework" after the U.S. administration in March directed refiners to blend a record amount of biofuels into gasoline and diesel this year and next, ending a period of mandate uncertainty that had weighed on feedstock demand.
For the three months ended March 31, ADM reported adjusted earnings of $0.71 per share, ahead of the LSEG consensus estimate of $0.66. The stock responded modestly in early trading, rising roughly 1.3% in premarket activity.
Earnings drivers and unit performance
Higher crude oil pushed soybean oil prices to multi-year highs, improving margins for companies that process oilseeds into food and fuel. ADM said processing volumes at its plants increased and that the margin backdrop had improved. Nevertheless, the company's crushing unit swung to a quarterly operating loss of $79 million, compared with operating profit of $47 million a year earlier. ADM attributed the decline in the crushing segment to mark-to-market losses.
Meanwhile, ADM's agricultural services division posted a 26% year-on-year rise in quarterly operating profit to $200 million. Management said the gain reflected stronger shipments from North America, including soybean and sorghum exports to China, which increased after a late October trade truce between Washington and Beijing.
Market context and analyst reaction
Some market participants had anticipated still stronger guidance. After rival Bunge Global last week raised its annual outlook on the back of solid oilseed processing margins and improved expectations for biofuel demand, several analysts thought ADM's full-year target might be nearer $5 per share. JPMorgan analysts commented that the guidance bump was not an outsized surprise, saying: "We do not think the guidance increase was a particularly positive surprise. If anything, it was a bit lower than we had heard from others."
ADM acknowledged external pressures that could affect results. The company faces risks from tariff battles and the Iran war, with the conflict disrupting global shipments of fuel and fertilizer needed by farmers.
Outlook
ADM's decision to raise its forecast reflects a combination of improved oilseed processing economics and greater regulatory certainty around U.S. biofuel blending targets. While higher commodity-driven margins and stronger export flows supported the quarter, the loss in the crushing unit and the geopolitical and trade-related risks the company highlighted remain potential headwinds as the year progresses.