California stands as a central political stage for the Democratic Party, home to major figures and policy experiments. Yet the mechanics of the state's electoral system and a crowded roster of hopefuls have created an unlikely scenario: Democrats could potentially fail to place either of their candidates among the top two finishers in the June 2 open primary that selects the November gubernatorial challengers.
The state's top-two rule advances the two highest vote-getters from the primary to the general election, irrespective of party affiliation. Polls in recent weeks have shown the race tightening into a cluster that includes two Republicans - former British government aide and Fox News host Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco - and multiple Democrats, notably U.S. Representative Eric Swalwell, former U.S. Representative Katie Porter and billionaire activist Tom Steyer. Those three Democrats, along with Democratic San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, are scheduled to meet the Republican pair in a televised debate on Tuesday beginning at 5 p.m. PT (8 p.m. ET/0000 GMT), an event that could shift dynamics in a field where no candidate has clearly broken out.
With more than two months remaining until the primary, and surveys indicating that as many as one in four voters remain undecided, there is time for voters to coalesce around a smaller set of contenders. Still, concerns within Democratic circles are mounting about the possibility that vote-splitting could yield an outcome that leaves the party absent from the November ballot in a state that last backed a Republican presidential candidate in 1988.
California’s Democratic Party chair, Rusty Hicks, addressed the issue in an open letter earlier this month urging long-shot Democratic contenders to exit the race to reduce the risk of an all-Republican November matchup. He described such an outcome as "implausible" but warned that it is "not impossible." Echoing that caution, veteran Democratic strategist Steven Maviglio said plainly: "There is a chance."
Political analysts highlight the unusual importance of the upcoming debate because of the evenly divided field. Dan Schnur, a University of California-Berkeley professor and former Republican strategist, said that given the absence of a clear frontrunner, a debate at this stage may carry more weight than it normally would two months before a primary.
The candidates bring varied profiles to the race. Swalwell, known for frequent cable news appearances and a brief 2020 presidential bid, rose to additional national prominence as one of the managers in the second impeachment trial of former President Donald Trump in 2021. Steyer, another former 2020 presidential contender, is a former hedge fund manager who has invested significant personal resources into political activism and his current campaign. Porter, who left Congress following an unsuccessful U.S. Senate bid in 2024, gained recognition for forceful questioning of corporate executives during her time as a representative. Mahan, the least widely known among the debate participants, is viewed as a moderate and has often criticized Newsom’s record.
Several other Democrats did not meet the thresholds to take part in Tuesday’s debate. Those excluded from this round include former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond, and former State Controller Betty Yee.
Republican candidates Hilton and Bianco have aligned themselves with former President Donald Trump but have also tried to emphasize state-level concerns such as crime and taxes in their campaigns. In a development that has drawn scrutiny, Sheriff Bianco announced on Friday that his office had seized more than half a million ballots in his county as part of an inquiry into alleged fraud in a 2025 special election that approved a Democratic-backed congressional map. Those allegations were challenged by Democratic Secretary of State Shirley Weber, who said the claims "lack credible evidence and risk undermining public confidence in our elections."
The stakes for the winner in November are substantial. The next governor will oversee a state with an economy of roughly $4 trillion - a size that would place California among the world’s largest economies if it were independent. Beyond raw economic scale, the governor’s office in California has historically served as a laboratory for policy directions on environmental protections, labor rules, and minority rights, with initiatives often spreading to other Democratic-led states and becoming political focal points in national debates.
The outcome of the primary has implications beyond state borders. Midterm elections this year will determine whether Republicans maintain narrow control of Congress, and California’s gubernatorial race - both in who advances and the messaging around policy priorities - could factor into broader political dynamics this fall. For now, Democrats face the tactical challenge of consolidating support; Republicans seek to translate their current polling positions into a November presence. The debate on Tuesday and the undecided voters in the weeks ahead will decide whether the unusual prospect of an all-Republican general election in deep-blue California becomes reality.
Debate details: Tuesday, 5 p.m. PT (8 p.m. ET/0000 GMT) - participants include Eric Swalwell, Katie Porter, Tom Steyer, Matt Mahan, Steve Hilton, and Chad Bianco.