Overview
Government data released on Feb. 10 show that Singapore's economy grew 6.9% in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared with the same period a year earlier, a result that exceeded the official advance estimate of 5.7%. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, gross domestic product rose 2.1% in the October-December period, above the advance estimate of 1.9%.
Annual and forecast revisions
For the full year of 2025, GDP growth was recorded at 5.0%, compared with a preliminary reading of 4.8% and a revised growth rate of 5.3% in 2024. In response to the stronger data, the trade ministry raised its forecast for 2026 GDP growth to "2.0% to 4.0%" from a prior range of "1.0% to 3.0%." The ministry said that stronger-than-expected momentum in the global economy in the fourth quarter was expected to carry into 2026.
"Against this backdrop, the 2026 growth outlook for the manufacturing and trade-related services sectors in Singapore has improved since November," the trade ministry said.
Exports and demand drivers
Separately, Enterprise Singapore revised up its projection for growth in non-oil domestic exports (NODX) to "2.0% to 4.0%", up from the previous "0 to 2.0%" range. The agency pointed to ongoing strength in certain demand channels, stating: "Robust AI-related demand and high gold prices should continue to provide support to NODX growth, though downside risks include an escalation in trade tensions or a correction in AI-related investment demand."
Key implications
- Stronger-than-expected GDP and export performance has prompted upward revisions to near-term growth forecasts.
- The manufacturing and trade-related services sectors are cited as having an improved outlook for 2026.
- NODX growth is supported by AI-related demand and high gold prices, according to Enterprise Singapore.
Contextual note
The government comments attribute the forecast upgrades to carryover momentum from the fourth quarter. Enterprise Singapore also flagged explicit downside risks tied to trade tensions and potential corrections in AI-related investment demand.