Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
2,060 total articles
A draft policy from the Trump administration would compel private AI vendors to permit the U.S. government to use models for "any lawful" purpose, following a clash between the Department of War and Anthropic that led to the Pentagon labeling the company a "supply-chain risk." The move and accompanying General Services Administration provisions hav…
Japan has formally asked the United States to ensure that Tokyo’s preferential terms from last year’s trade deal are preserved amid U.S. moves to impose new blanket tariffs that could reach 15%. Japanese Minister Ryosei Akazawa pressed U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to exempt Japanese products, warning that higher duties would reverse conce…
Cleveland Federal Reserve President Beth Hammack said the central bank may have to consider tighter monetary policy later this year if inflation stops moving toward the 2% target, noting that a recent oil price surge complicates the outlook even as labor-market weakness emerges. Markets reacted modestly, with the dollar and Treasury yields edging l…
Japan's Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Ryosei Akazawa met with U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick in Washington and asked that Tokyo not be disadvantaged under the United States' recently imposed blanket tariff, which began at 10% and could rise to 15%. Akazawa said both sides reaffirmed commitment to last year's trade deal that set a …
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said she expects inflation to move toward the Fed’s 2% target but warned that if price pressures do not meaningfully ease later this year the central bank may need to adopt tighter policy. Hammack signaled that rates should remain on hold for an extended period given the current outlook, but …
Dr. Vinay Prasad, who has led the Food and Drug Administration's division overseeing vaccines and biotech drug approvals for about a year, will leave the agency at the end of April. FDA Commissioner Marty Makary confirmed the departure and said federal health officials have begun looking for Prasad's replacement. Prasad had taken a one-year leave f…
Federal Reserve officials are widely expected to keep the policy rate steady at the March 17-18 meeting, repeating the stance taken in January, even as an array of risks - including the Iran conflict, higher oil prices, still-elevated inflation and signs of a weakening labor market - complicate the road ahead. Public remarks from regional president…
President Trump said senior executives from the country's largest defense manufacturers agreed to ramp up production of advanced weaponry to four times current output. Company expansions reportedly began months earlier, and work on new plants and weapons is already in progress. A follow-up meeting is scheduled in two months as states bid to host ne…
Cleveland Federal Reserve President Beth Hammack described February's employment figures as disappointing while noting broader signs of economic improvement. Speaking on Bloomberg TV, she emphasized that the labor market is stabilizing even as inflation has shown virtually no progress toward the Fed's goal over the past two years. Hammack said poli…
Pacific Investment Management Co. analysts say direct-lending funds loosened credit standards after a wave of fundraising following the 2008 financial crisis and are likely due for a stress test. The note warns that a full-blown default cycle could challenge the sector's resilience to both sector-specific disruption and broader economic shocks, fue…
February's employment figures showed an unforeseen decline in nonfarm payrolls and a modest rise in unemployment, complicating the Federal Reserve's policy calculus. The weak report, coupled with higher oil prices tied to the conflict in Iran, weighed on equity markets and drew varied responses from economists and strategists about the timing and s…
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said monetary policy does not require immediate adjustment as inflation remains "too high." She argued that the combination of lingering inflation, a softening jobs market and rate reductions enacted last year leaves policy in a neutral position, and under her baseline she expects rates to be…
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said she does not see an immediate need to alter monetary policy as inflation remains elevated. Speaking at the U.S. Monetary Policy Forum in New York, Hammack argued the Fed's current stance is well positioned to balance the twin concerns of high inflation and a softening labor market and ur…
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins said she does not see an immediate need to lower interest rates, emphasizing a patient, deliberate approach and the need for clear evidence that inflation is returning to the 2% target. Collins cited upside risks to inflation, recent labor-market resilience, and geopolitical-driven energy price…
A class action lawsuit filed Thursday in the U.S. District Court for the Central District of California accuses prediction market operator Kalshi of refusing to pay $54 million to customers who bet that Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would leave office before March 1, 2026. The suit contends Kalshi invoked a 'death carveout' to avoid…
Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins said on March 6 that she expects policy rates to remain at their current, mildly restrictive levels for an extended period unless there is clear evidence that inflation is drifting back toward the 2% target. She emphasized a patient, deliberate approach, noted continued upside risks to inflation and a …
The Global Anglican Future Conference (GAFCON), a conservative alliance of mainly African and Asian churches, has urged members to boycott gatherings convened by the Archbishop of Canterbury and to stop financial contributions to the current leadership. The move follows the formation of a rival council and three days of meetings in Nigeria that hig…
European Central Bank policy is currently sound, ECB board member Isabel Schnabel said, but recent geopolitical tensions tied to Iran have raised the prospect of an energy-driven rise in consumer prices that warrants close monitoring. While staff projections show inflation aligning with the 2% target over the medium term and expectations remain anc…
The U.S. Army abruptly canceled a large-scale training event for the headquarters element of the 82nd Airborne Division at Fort Bragg, North Carolina. The move has generated speculation inside the Defense Department about a potential deployment to the Middle East as tensions with Iran increase. As of Friday, no deployment orders had been issued, an…
Canada's minister responsible for U.S. trade relations, Dominic LeBlanc, will travel to Washington to meet U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer to discuss the looming trilateral review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA/CUSMA) and bilateral tariff issues. The meeting comes as the review deadline of July 1 approaches and after t…
Morgan Stanley's client note estimates that a sustained oil price increase would hit Asian growth hardest due to heavy reliance on imported energy, modestly lift inflation region-wide, and produce more muted effects in the United States. The euro area is identified as facing a complex mix of slower growth and higher inflation.
A group of economists found that melding anonymized private data from payroll processor ADP, Vanguard 401(k) activity and JPMorgan checking accounts with government employment and inflation reports produces more accurate forecasts of monthly private nonfarm payrolls, subsequent revisions, and six-month job growth. The team says private signals - es…
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said the weak February jobs report calls into question recent signs that the U.S. labor market was stabilizing. She cautioned against reading too much into a single month but highlighted details in the report that complicate interpretation, and reiterated that the Fed faces risks on both sid…
Electronic warfare tactics in the Persian Gulf have degraded navigation systems and contributed to a dramatic fall in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Missiles and drone strikes have produced multiple attacks and fatalities on oil tankers, while widespread GPS and AIS jamming has affected more than 1,100 vessels in recent days.
As the Middle East conflict extends into a second week, investors have shifted into a narrow set of highly-trafficked defensive positions. The dollar has rallied, gold and other previously crowded trades have taken losses while many measures of market plumbing and systemic stress remain subdued. Surging oil prices and rising inflation expectations …
