A poll of 17 economists showed new bank lending in China likely plunged to about 300 billion yuan ($44.09 billion) in April, underscoring persistent weakness in credit demand despite policy efforts to prop up financing for the economy.
The consensus forecast for April lending is roughly one-tenth of the 2.99 trillion yuan disbursed in March. The estimate is, however, a touch above the 280 billion yuan extended in April 2025. The central bank is due to publish official loans and money supply figures between May 10 and May 15.
Analysts and market participants noted several mechanical and structural reasons for the softer reading in April. Banks often concentrate lending activity in the first quarter during a traditional sales campaign, which can make subsequent months appear comparatively weak. At the same time, authorities have taken steps to prevent an abrupt slowdown in credit growth amid rising external risks linked to the conflict in the Middle East; central bank guidance reportedly encouraged some commercial banks to broaden loan issuance in April.
Citi Research commented that the central bank's reported window guidance should bolster credit supply. The research note also highlighted a decline in the bills discount rate - averaging 0.9% in April versus 1.2% in March - as a sign of limited organic demand for longer-term borrowing.
The expected deceleration in new lending reflects deeper economic frictions: a multi-year slump in the property sector, tentative private investment and restrained household appetite to take on leverage as income prospects remain uncertain. Observers said the property crisis has yet to clearly bottom out despite some isolated improvements.
Macquarie analysts warned in a note that, without forceful stimulus, the housing market "may still contract this year and next, albeit at a slower pace than in previous years."
On broader monetary aggregates, the poll suggested M2 money supply likely grew 8.5% year-on-year in April, unchanged from March. Outstanding yuan loans were estimated to have expanded 5.8% year-on-year in April, a marginal pickup from 5.7% in March.
Total social financing - a broad measure of credit and liquidity - was forecast to have shrunk to 1.5 trillion yuan in April from 5.23 trillion yuan in March, though it would still sit above the 1.16 trillion yuan reported a year earlier.
Exchange rate used in the estimates: $1 = 6.8036 Chinese yuan renminbi.
Key takeaways
- New lending likely dropped to about 300 billion yuan in April, far below March's 2.99 trillion yuan.
- Weak demand is tied to property-sector distress, cautious private investment and subdued household leverage appetite.
- Monetary indicators show M2 steady at an 8.5% year-on-year pace and outstanding yuan loans nudging up to 5.8% year-on-year.
Impacted sectors: Banking, property, household consumption and corporate investment.