Leading investment banks broadly expect the S&P 500 to extend its advance in 2026, even as geopolitical strains in the Middle East disrupt energy supplies and put upward pressure on inflation. Strategists surveyed by major brokerages pointed to momentum in artificial intelligence and strong corporate profits as factors that should blunt the conflict's immediate economic fallout, while warning that prolonged elevated oil costs could raise the chances of a recession.
Below are the 2026 S&P 500 index targets provided by the brokerages:
- BofA Global Research: 7,100
- Societe Generale: 7,300
- UBS Global Research: 7,500
- Jefferies: 7,500
- Canaccord Genuity: 7,500
- BNP Paribas: 7,500
- UBS Global Wealth Management: 7,500
- Goldman Sachs: 7,600
- J.P. Morgan: 7,600
- Barclays: 7,650
- HSBC: 7,650
- Citigroup: 7,700
- Evercore ISI: 7,750
- Seaport Research Partners: 7,800
- RBC Capital Markets: 7,900
- Deutsche Bank: 8,000
- Morgan Stanley: 8,000
- Oppenheimer Asset Management: 8,100
- Wells Fargo Investment Institute: 7,400-7,600
Brokerages also supplied forecasts for real GDP growth in 2026 across several regions. The table below summarizes those projections for global growth and for the U.S., the euro area and the U.K.:
| Brokerage | GLOBAL | U.S. | EURO AREA | UK |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citigroup | 2.7% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.8% |
| Goldman Sachs | 2.4% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.9% |
| Morgan Stanley | 3.1% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.7% |
| Barclays | 3.1% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.7% |
| Wells Fargo | 2.7% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.6% |
| UBS Global Wealth Management | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.1% |
| Deutsche Bank | 3.3% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 1.3% |
| HSBC | 2.5% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.8% |
| J.P. Morgan | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| BofA Global Research | 3.1% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 1.2% |
| UBS Global Research | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% |
Notes: UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are separate, independent divisions within UBS Group. Wells Fargo Investment Institute is a wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Bank.
The forecasts reflect a common view among strategists: technology-related momentum, particularly around artificial intelligence, and resilient corporate earnings are expected to help sustain equity market gains in 2026 despite the near-term headwinds stemming from disrupted energy flows and higher inflation. At the same time, several firms cautioned that if oil prices remain elevated, that could materially raise recession risks.