Economy March 24, 2026

BofA Lowers Dominican Republic Growth Forecast to 3% as Recovery Remains Uneven

Tourism shows strength while broader economy lags; reform momentum weakens and oil exposure poses a vulnerability

By Maya Rios
BofA Lowers Dominican Republic Growth Forecast to 3% as Recovery Remains Uneven

Bank of America has downgraded its GDP growth projection for the Dominican Republic to 3%, saying the country's rebound will be slow. The bank highlighted a contrast between a recovering tourism sector and a more sluggish performance across the rest of the economy, while flagging a narrowing window for reforms and heightened sensitivity to oil price shocks. It also noted fiscal space exists for government support, but the central bank has limited room to ease policy. The firm did not provide timing for the revision or a prior estimate.

Key Points

  • Bank of America trimmed its GDP growth forecast for the Dominican Republic to 3%, citing a sluggish recovery.
  • Tourism is recovering and contributes positively to growth, while other sectors are lagging.
  • The bank noted fading opportunities for reforms and highlighted the countrys high exposure to an oil shock; it said the government has room to support the economy but the central bank has less room to ease.

Bank of America has revised down its estimate for economic expansion in the Dominican Republic to 3%, concluding that the nation's recovery will be muted this year, according to a research note issued by the firm. The bank portrayed the outlook as uneven, with the tourism sector providing the principal bright spot while other areas of the economy rebound more slowly.

In its assessment, Bank of America singled out tourism as a positive contributor to growth but stressed that the remainder of the economy is not recovering at the same pace. The bank also said the opportunity for structural reforms is narrowing, a development it views as problematic for medium-term prospects.

Bank of America further warned that the Dominican Republic carries substantial exposure to an oil shock, a vulnerability that could weigh on the outlook depending on energy price developments. At the same time, the research note stated that the government has fiscal room to provide support to the economy if needed. By contrast, the central bank was described as having relatively less scope to ease monetary policy.

The research note did not specify when the forecast was adjusted, nor did it include the previous growth estimate for comparison. Those details were not provided in the firms published commentary.


Readers should note the constraints in the available information: the bank's note lays out a series of risks and balances - tourism strength versus broader softness, policy space for fiscal intervention against limited central bank maneuvering, and the economy's exposure to oil prices - without dating the revision or quantifying prior assumptions.

The evaluation underscores where policymakers and market participants may want to focus attention: sustaining tourism momentum, monitoring energy-related risks, and considering the implications of constrained monetary flexibility alongside potential fiscal measures.

Risks

  • High exposure to an oil shock - energy price volatility could negatively affect growth and costs across the economy.
  • Fading opportunity for reforms - delayed or missed reforms may weaken medium-term growth prospects.
  • Limited central bank flexibility - constrained monetary policy space could limit the authorities ability to respond to a slowdown, affecting financial conditions.

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