U.S. beef producers are pressing for the reinstatement of export permissions to China, hoping the meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping on May 14-15 will yield progress on licenses that lapsed last year.
The lapse affected a large portion of U.S. capacity: more than 400 beef plants lost eligibility after registrations Beijing had granted between March 2020 and April 2021 were allowed to expire, Chinese customs data show. That represents roughly 65% of plants that had been registered to export to China. The U.S. Meat Export Federation also said access for another three plants is set to expire in June.
U.S. beef exports to China reached a high of $1.7 billion in 2022, but have been constrained as a consequence of the trade disruptions that accompanied tensions between Washington and Beijing. Producers and processors are looking to the upcoming summit as a possible opening for license renewals.
Representatives of U.S. cattle producers say they have been given assurances that the subject will be on the summit agenda. Justin Tupper, president of the United States Cattlemen's Association and a South Dakota cattle producer, said White House staff in recent weeks told the association the issue would be discussed at the summit. "We asked them to make sure that it would be part of the discussion, and the answer was: It will," Tupper said. "We're pushing to make it a big part of the discussion."
Questions about the matter were referred by the White House to the Department of Agriculture, which did not respond to a request for comment. China's Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs also did not reply to requests for comment.
Market backdrop and policy shifts
Domestic U.S. beef prices have been setting records amid shrinking cattle supplies, a dynamic that has reduced the volume of U.S. exports while prompting higher imports. Some in the U.S. industry believe the timing may favour renewed Chinese access, in part because Australia appears on track to reach its safeguard threshold in mid-2026, a point that could reshape buying patterns for Chinese importers, according to Joe Schuele, a spokesperson for the U.S. Meat Export Federation.
China implemented a beef import quota system last December. For major suppliers such as the United States and Australia, imports above quota are subject to a 55% tariff. Chinese customs data show Australia surpassed 50% of its beef quota in the first quarter of the year.
Industry skepticism in China
Despite producer hopes in the United States, some Chinese industry participants say that even if access is restored, it is unlikely to trigger a large surge in U.S. beef imports. Among the issues they cite are tariff differentials and rising competition from domestic producers.
One Beijing-based director at a company that assists international beef firms with market access characterized U.S. access as a negotiable asset for China. "This is a bargaining chip for China, because the U.S. wants China to open up, but China does not lack beef," the director said. An executive at a Chinese beef importing and breeding company, speaking on condition of anonymity because of sensitivity around the issue, said a license renewal would be "purely a political gesture."
Executives interviewed in China also pointed to a tariff disparity that weighs against U.S. meat, noting U.S. beef faces a tariff that is about 10% higher than the duty on Australian product. Beyond tariffs, the Chinese government has been encouraging local producers to cultivate higher-end cattle breeds to reduce reliance on imported beef from the United States and Australia, the import executive said.
Outlook
Producers and trade associations on both sides appear to be watching the summit as a potential turning point for market access, but key uncertainties remain. China has not publicly explained why it allowed the registrations to lapse, a move that industry groups say runs afoul of the Phase One trade agreement signed in 2020. With tariffs, quotas and domestic policy leaning toward strengthening local high-end production, both traders and exporters say any restoration of access may have constrained near-term effects on volumes.