Commodities May 11, 2026 10:53 AM

OPEC Output Slumps to Lowest Level in Over 20 Years as Hormuz Closure Hits Exports

April crude production falls 830,000 bpd to 20.04 million, with conflict-linked Strait of Hormuz disruption preventing planned OPEC+ output gains

By Jordan Park

OPEC's crude production fell by 830,000 barrels per day in April to 20.04 million bpd, the lowest level recorded since at least 2000 when excluding membership changes. The decline occurred amid a closure of the Strait of Hormuz linked to the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, which curtailed exports and prevented planned production increases by members of OPEC+.

OPEC Output Slumps to Lowest Level in Over 20 Years as Hormuz Closure Hits Exports

Key Points

  • OPEC's crude output fell by 830,000 bpd in April to 20.04 million bpd - the lowest level since at least 2000 when excluding membership changes.
  • The drop followed the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, which forced export reductions and prevented planned OPEC+ production increases.
  • Kuwait saw the largest month-on-month decline in April; Saudi Arabia and Iraq also reduced output while the UAE, Venezuela and Libya increased production. The UAE left OPEC effective May 1.

OPEC's crude output dropped by 830,000 barrels per day in April, settling at 20.04 million barrels per day (bpd) - a level the group has not recorded since at least 2000 when membership is held constant. The April tally also sits below the production recorded during the pandemic-driven demand collapse in 2020.

The decline in output coincided with a security-driven disruption of the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran effectively closed the channel and forced reductions in exports, restricting the ability of several Gulf producers to ship crude through their usual routes.

March production figures were also revised down, with that month's totals lowered by 700,000 bpd after revisions to Saudi Arabia's estimates. The combination of the revision and April's drop highlights an abrupt retrenchment in OPEC supply in the opening months of the year.

Eight members of the broader OPEC+ grouping - which includes OPEC and allied producers such as Russia - had been scheduled to resume phased production increases in April. Those plans were derailed after the outbreak of war with Iran on February 28 and the associated closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which prevented delivery of the intended ramp-up.

Within the OPEC membership, Kuwait recorded the largest decline in April, a fall attributed to a full month of disrupted exports. Saudi Arabia and Iraq also saw further decreases in their reported output during the month.

By contrast, the United Arab Emirates was the only Gulf member to raise production in April. Both Saudi Arabia and the UAE operate export routes that bypass the Strait of Hormuz; tanker movements showed higher UAE exports for the month. Venezuela and Libya also posted increases in output during April.

Notably, the UAE departed OPEC effective May 1, a membership change that is separate from the production totals reported for April. The April figures therefore represent a low point for OPEC's crude production in the recent historical record when membership is held constant.


Implications and context

The April production decline and the March revisions underscore how security disruptions and measurement changes can materially alter the near-term supply picture. The halted OPEC+ increases and the closure of a strategic chokepoint curtailed expected deliveries, narrowing crude availability during the period.

Risks

  • Continued closure or periodic disruptions of the Strait of Hormuz could sustain export constraints and limit crude deliveries - impacting oil supply and energy markets.
  • Planned OPEC+ production increases remained unimplemented after the outbreak of war with Iran on February 28, creating uncertainty about future supply trajectories for markets and downstream sectors.
  • Revisions to production estimates - exemplified by the 700,000 bpd downward revision to March due to Saudi Arabia estimate changes - signal data uncertainty that can complicate market assessments and trading decisions.

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