Rothschild Redburn has downgraded CF Industries (NYSE:CF) from Neutral to Sell and placed a $72 price objective on the fertilizer producer, sharply below the stock’s then-current quote of $92.50. The research house attributes the move to an outlook for normalizing fertilizer prices and feedstock costs that it believes will weigh on CF’s future profitability.
The broker expects CF to face a tougher margin environment even if natural gas prices decline, arguing the company will not be able to fully offset profit erosion through lower feedstock expenses. Specifically, Rothschild Redburn models CF’s feedstock cost in a $3.9-4.0 per MMBtu range over the next four years, a level the firm notes is roughly 10% above consensus assumptions.
Rothschild Redburn also anticipates the global nitrogen market’s supply tightness to ease, exerting downward pressure on selling prices. Its forecast pegs CF’s blended average selling price around $315 per ton by 2027, which the firm describes as consistent with the 2014-24 mid-cycle average. The projected 2027 price remains significantly above the cyclical troughs seen in 2016-20, however - more than 40% higher than those trough levels.
On a profitability basis, the broker’s model points to a marked reduction in CF’s earnings power. For 2026, Rothschild Redburn predicts adjusted EBITDA of $2.3 billion, down 19% from the prior year and about 7% below consensus estimates. Looking further out, the firm forecasts adjusted EBITDA of $1.9 billion in 2029, which it says is roughly 16% below consensus expectations. Those estimates contrast with CF’s current adjusted EBITDA of $3.03 billion.
Despite Rothschild Redburn’s bearish stance, third-party data noted by InvestingPro paints a stronger near-term financial picture. InvestingPro flags CF as slightly undervalued on some metrics and highlights a 12% free cash flow yield and a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.17. The platform also scores CF’s overall financial health as "GREAT" and references additional ProTips available through its research tools.
Recent company disclosures provide additional context. CF reported third-quarter 2025 results that beat expectations, with earnings per share of $2.19 versus a $2.10 forecast and revenue of $1.66 billion compared with an expected $1.64 billion. The company announced a quarterly cash dividend of $0.50 per share, payable on February 27, 2026.
CF is also advancing low-carbon initiatives. The company and POET launched a pilot project intended to develop a lower-carbon fertilizers supply chain aimed at reducing corn production’s carbon intensity. Separately, CF disclosed that a conditional ownership option held by JERA Co., Inc. in the Blue Point Number One, LLC joint venture has expired and is no longer exercisable; that joint venture centers on the construction and production of low-carbon ammonia.
Not all sell-side views align with Rothschild Redburn. Wells Fargo has kept an Overweight rating on CF, citing a constructive nitrogen outlook and industry-leading free cash flow, and set a $100 price target, a modest reduction from a prior $105 target.
The divergence between brokers highlights differing assumptions on feedstock costs, supply dynamics in the nitrogen market, and the persistence of elevated selling prices. Investors will weigh Rothschild Redburn’s more cautious forecasts against CF’s recent operational results, dividend policy, and identified strengths in cash generation.