State of the Market Reports

Midday Update June 21, 2026 • 12:04 PM

Tech leads while energy blinks as Hormuz headlines whipsaw the macro tape

A higher-yield backdrop meets a fragile Middle East truce. Chips and megacap growth carry the equity load; oil and gold lose altitude. Bonds stabilize, crypto drifts, and the dollar edges firmer against the euro.

Megacap tech extends leadership as QQQ outperforms SPY; DIA lags while IWM participates.
Treasury yields rose into the prior close, yet bond ETFs stabilized, reflecting anchored long-run inflation expectations.
Energy underperforms with XLE lower despite USO edging up; gold and silver slip as hawkish policy tone firms the dollar.

Midday Update June 20, 2026 • 12:03 PM

Midday: Markets Balance Gulf Headlines and a Hawkish Fed; Tech Holds the Baton as Oil Whipsaws

Latest pricing shows big-cap tech steady on top while energy and banks lag. Bonds stabilize despite higher policy chatter. The Gulf narrative remains volatile, toggling between ceasefire signals and shipping jitters in Hormuz.

Tech leadership persists as growth heavyweights trade above prior closes while energy and banks lag.
Bond proxies stabilize despite a hawkish Fed tone, with long and intermediate Treasuries slightly firmer versus prior marks.
Oil whipsaws as Hormuz reopening headlines collide with renewed regional tensions; war premium fades but does not vanish.

Midday Update June 19, 2026 • 12:02 PM

Midday market: Tech shoulders the tape as ceasefire headlines collide with hawkish central banks

Mega-cap growth advances while banks and energy ease. Duration steadies, gold softens, and oil treads water as traders parse a fragile Middle East truce and a tougher Fed tone.

Growth leads while banks and energy lag amid ceasefire headlines and a hawkish central bank tone.
Treasury duration steadies on ETFs even as benchmarks sit near 4.5% on the 10-year.
Oil flows resume through Hormuz, but energy equities underperform crude.

Market Close June 18, 2026 • 4:02 PM

Relief Rally, With an Asterisk: Chips Lead, Oil Calms, and the Fed Still Looms

Stocks snapped back from the Warsh-Fed gut punch as tech caught a fresh bid and crude softened on Iran deal optimism. Financials and healthcare dragged, gold slipped, and the bond tape stayed oddly composed given the macro noise.

Tech led the rebound, with XLK up on the day while SPY and QQQ snapped back from Wednesday’s Fed-driven drop
Oil-sensitive equities lagged, with XLE lower as Hormuz reopening and ceasefire headlines cooled the geopolitical premium
Financials underperformed, with XLF down, a caution flag on the breadth and macro conviction behind the rally

Market Open June 18, 2026 • 9:27 AM

Futures steady as Hormuz reopens and oil slips, while the Fed’s new tone still hangs over the tape

Geopolitics eases, crude sinks, gold softens, and Big Tech tests a rebound. Bonds stabilize after yesterday’s hawkish shock, but the market is still negotiating the cost of money.

Futures stabilize as Gulf shipping reopens and oil slides, but the Fed’s hawkish tone still caps risk appetite.
Tech and industrials attempt a rebound while energy and defensives lag pre-market.
Treasuries steady after yesterday’s jump, with the 10-year hovering near 4.43%.

Market Close June 17, 2026 • 4:02 PM

Close: Risk Came Off the Table, but Stocks Still Slid

Oil and broad commodities retreated, gold and long bonds steadied, and yet equities finished lower. The market is acting like it believes the geopolitical shock is fading, but it is not ready to pay up for growth at today’s rates.

Equities closed lower despite easing oil stress, SPY 741.02 vs 750.33, QQQ 722.50 vs 729.86.
Energy led the downside, XLE 54.70 vs 55.36, consistent with deal-driven supply normalization narratives.
Defensives did not provide cover, XLP 83.70 vs 85.59 and XLU 44.47 vs 45.06.

Midday Update June 17, 2026 • 12:03 PM

Midday rotation takes the wheel: small caps and cyclicals lift the tape as oil fades and gold firms

The market leans risk-on beneath the megacap glare. Industrials and banks climb, energy sags with crude near three‑month lows, and gold holds a bid ahead of Chair Warsh’s first Fed press conference.

Small caps and cyclicals lead midday while megacap tech is mixed to lower; SPY slightly up, QQQ up ~0.5%, DIA up ~0.4%, IWM up ~1.2%.
Energy weak as crude tracks toward three-month lows on U.S.–Iran ceasefire progress and easing spot premiums; XLE lower.
Gold and silver catch a bid into the Fed and geopolitical fine print; GLD up ~0.7%, SLV up ~0.9%.

Market Open June 17, 2026 • 9:27 AM

Oil’s air pocket, yields on their heels, and a rotation that refuses to die at the opening bell

Warsh’s first Fed day meets an Iran-supply reset; banks bid while megacap tech backs off, setting a choppy tone for the cash open.

Crude reprices lower on fresh Iran-supply signals, pressuring energy while easing inflation worries.
Treasury duration bids ahead of Kevin Warsh’s first Fed press conference, lifting utilities and long-duration plays outside megacap tech.
Banks and industrials lead the open; megacap tech splits, with Microsoft and Nvidia softer while Apple and Alphabet lean higher.

Market Close June 16, 2026 • 4:01 PM

Oil’s trapdoor opens, but the market doesn’t get the clean rally it wanted

A U.S.-Iran ceasefire narrative hit crude hard and loosened financial conditions at the margin. Equities still split, with Dow-style ballast holding up while growth and the broad market sagged.

Equities closed split: SPY and QQQ lower, DIA higher, signaling rotation rather than broad risk-on.
Crude-linked USO dropped sharply, reinforcing the ceasefire and Hormuz reopening narrative as the session’s dominant macro input.
Financials (XLF) outperformed while tech (XLK) sank, an old-school leadership profile for a headline-driven day.

Midday Update June 16, 2026 • 12:03 PM

Midday markets pivot: Dow grinds higher as tech cools, oil extends slide, bonds bid

The tape shows rotation and restraint. Industrials and banks carry the load while megacap tech catches its breath. Oil’s drop and easier yields set today’s tone ahead of Kevin Warsh’s first Fed meeting.

Rotation day: DIA up, QQQ down, SPY slightly softer, IWM lagging.
Oil unwinds further as U.S.-Iran deal points to higher Hormuz traffic; USO drops.
Duration bid: TLT and IEF higher as yields ease from last week’s highs.

Market Open June 16, 2026 • 9:30 AM

Risk turns back on: Stocks lean higher as oil sags and yields ease into Warsh’s first Fed meeting

Tech leads premarket, energy lags, and gold refuses to blink. The tape is pricing a cleaner Hormuz and a steadier policy hand — with caveats.

Tech and consumer lead premarket as oil falls and yields ease into the Fed.
Energy sells off on shrinking Hormuz risk premia; shipping normalization still weeks away.
Gold and silver stay firm alongside equities, a notable hedge-with-risk posture.

Market Close June 15, 2026 • 4:02 PM

Relief Rally With a Tell, Oil Breaks and Tech Catches Fire While Gold Refuses to Blink

A U.S.-Iran peace framework yanked the geopolitical risk premium out of crude, cooled yields, and lit up growth. Yet gold climbed anyway, a quiet reminder that this market still keeps one hand on the exit door.

Risk-on dominated the close as U.S.-Iran peace framework headlines pulled the geopolitical premium out of oil.
Tech leadership was decisive, with QQQ and XLK sharply higher on easing inflation anxiety and a softer yield tone.
Energy was the clear laggard as crude proxies slid, dragging XLE and integrated oils lower.

Midday Update June 15, 2026 • 12:02 PM

Tech sprints, oil slips, bonds firm: Markets lean into a Hormuz reopening and lower yields

The tape shows a classic rotation day at midday: mega-cap growth leads, energy bleeds, gold climbs, and Treasurys catch a bid as traders price a thaw in the Gulf and a gentler inflation path.

Mega-cap tech leads as yields ease, with QQQ outpacing SPY while DIA and IWM are positive but lag the Nasdaq.
Energy sells off sharply with crude lower as markets price a path to reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Treasurys catch a bid across the curve; 10-year near 4.45% and 30-year around 4.95% on the latest marks.

Market Open June 15, 2026 • 9:28 AM

Risk-on surge at the open as Iran deal sinks oil; tech races, energy buckles

SPY and QQQ gap higher, small caps join. Oil slides toward three-month lows on a proposed U.S.–Iran accord to reopen Hormuz. Dollar eases, gold shines, and bonds hold steady as traders weigh relief against lingering logistical and political risks.

U.S. equities gap higher on U.S.–Iran deal headlines; tech and small caps lead while energy lags.
Oil tumbles as Hormuz reopening appears closer, but shippers remain cautious and risks persist.
Dollar eases, euro firms; gold and silver rise despite risk-on tone as yields stabilize.

Midday Update June 14, 2026 • 12:03 PM

Midday Brief: Oil Softens on Peace Hopes, Stocks Hold Last Week’s Bid, Yields Ease as Inflation Expectations Cool

Into the weekend, the tape leans risk-on from Friday’s close: cyclicals and tech led, health care lagged, oil retreated, gold and silver held firm, crypto steadied below recent highs, and the market’s narrative revolves around de-escalation hopes in the Gulf alongside lingering SpaceX-fueled risk appetite.

Equities finished Friday higher across SPY, QQQ, DIA, and IWM while health care lagged and cyclicals led.
Oil fell as de-escalation hopes in the Gulf took hold, even as energy equities edged up, creating a commodity-equity divergence to monitor.
Treasury yields eased versus midweek, and model-based inflation expectations for June ticked lower across 1-, 5-, and 10-year horizons.

Midday Update June 13, 2026 • 12:03 PM

Midday: Equities carry the SpaceX afterglow as oil eases on Iran deal hopes; yields cooler, crypto steadies

The tape leans risk-on at lunch with banks and industrials in front, energy shares resilient despite weaker oil, and defense slipping as de-escalation chatter circles the Gulf.

Equities hold modest gains at midday with SPY, QQQ, DIA, and IWM all above prior closes.
Financials lead as XLF climbs, while industrials and tech participate; defensives stay green.
Oil-linked ETFs like USO and DBC slip on U.S.–Iran deal hopes, but energy equities in XLE edge higher.

Market Close June 12, 2026 • 4:02 PM

A risk-on close with one eye on Hormuz, and the other on the equity supply cannon

Stocks finished higher with tech still the swing vote, oil broke lower, and long yields stayed heavy. The market loved the idea of a de-escalation, but it priced it with a raised eyebrow.

Broad indexes finished higher, with small caps leading the gain and the close reading like a relief trade.
Oil broke lower sharply while energy equities held up, a small but important disconnect.
Long-duration Treasurys stayed heavy despite risk headlines, signaling inflation and term premium are still in the driver’s seat.

Midday Update June 12, 2026 • 12:03 PM

Midday market: Small caps and banks take the wheel as oil eases, yields firm, and megacaps split ahead of SpaceX’s debut

Rotation shows its face. The tape favors cyclicals over the AI complex, even as energy equities rally against softer crude and long yields stay sticky.

Small caps and financials lead while megacap tech is mixed to lower.
Energy equities rise against a softer crude tape, a notable divergence to monitor.
Long yields are steady to slightly higher, keeping long-duration bonds under pressure.

Market Open June 12, 2026 • 9:28 AM

Wall Street opens on a surge: Tech leads, oil slips, SpaceX debut looms

Risk appetite returns as equities gap higher, bonds firm and gold shines while crude cools on de-escalation hopes in the Gulf. The largest IPO on record adds a fresh test of demand and liquidity into the bell.

Equities gap higher into the bell with SPY, QQQ, DIA and IWM all indicating above prior closes.
Tech and cyclicals lead while Energy lags as oil retreats; gold and silver are firm.
Treasury ETFs are bid even after the 10-year held near 4.55% yesterday, hinting at a small overnight dip in yields.

Market Close June 11, 2026 • 4:02 PM

A Risk-On Close With War Headlines in the Background, Tech and Industrials Take the Wheel

Equities finished higher even as Iran-related headlines kept volatility in the air. Rates stayed elevated in the long end, oil cooled, and gold caught a bid, a cocktail that looks less like calm and more like traders choosing their spots.

Equities closed higher, with SPY at 737.6425 and QQQ at 716.44, shaking off recent pressure despite heavy geopolitics.
Tech and industrials led, XLK rose to 183.17 and XLI to 175.11, while energy lagged with XLE down to 57.11.
Oil cooled, USO fell to 128.82 from 134.30, but gold and silver surged, GLD to 386.24 and SLV to 60.832.

Menu

State of the Market

● Market Pulse: Rotational

Market Reports