Summary: Argentina's monthly economic activity estimator contracted 1.5% in April compared with March, according to government figures released Monday. The result fell short of the roughly 1% drop predicted by Bloomberg Economics and left year-on-year growth at 1.6%, below the 3.3% median forecast from economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
The breakdown by sector showed a mixed performance in annual terms. Agriculture led expansion with a 10.9% increase, while mining and quarrying climbed 17.1%. By contrast, manufacturing recorded a 2.9% decline, retail trade fell 3.2%, and fishing contracted sharply by 28.4% compared with the same month in 2025.
On a quarterly basis, Argentina's gross domestic product increased 0.7% in the first quarter compared with the previous quarter, a result attributed to consumer spending. Forecasters expect the country to register growth for the second consecutive year in 2026, with the recovery supported by what are described as record exports from the energy, agriculture and mining sectors.
Looking ahead, the central bank's monthly survey in May showed economists projecting 2.9% growth for Argentina in 2026 and an easing of inflation to 30.5%. Despite those projections, the labor market outlook remains weak: unemployment has continued to rise, with the formal labor force losing nearly half a million jobs.
The April data arrive more than halfway through President Javier Milei's term and underscore an uneven pattern of recovery across industries. While primary sectors such as agriculture and mining have expanded on an annual basis, manufacturing and consumer-facing areas like retail have contracted, and services tied to fishing have seen significant declines.
Policy makers and market participants will be monitoring forthcoming releases for confirmation of the trajectory signaled by April's figures, including whether the projected slowdown in inflation materializes and whether job losses in the formal labor market stabilize.
Sector implications:
- Agriculture and mining - strong annual gains, contributing to export-led growth expectations.
- Manufacturing and retail - contraction highlights weakness in domestic production and consumption-sensitive sectors.
- Labor market - rising unemployment and large formal job losses weigh on household income and demand.