The U.S. Treasury has been borrowing at a pace of about $155 billion per month in fiscal year 2026, equal to roughly $39 billion a week, a level of issuance that the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) says will drive the federal deficit toward $2 trillion or more by September.
CRFB, relying on the Congressional Budget Office’s most recent Monthly Budget Review, reports that net new borrowing totaled $1.4 trillion in the first nine months of FY2026, with $126 billion borrowed in June alone. That nine-month total already exceeds the equivalent period in FY2025 by $35 billion, illustrating an accelerating trajectory even as the economy continues to expand.
Interest burden and budget trade-offs
One of the clearest signals of the shifting fiscal landscape is the size of the interest bill. Net interest payments on the public debt reached $857 billion through the first nine months of the fiscal year, or about $23.8 billion per week, based on CBO figures cited by Fortune. Those interest outlays now exceed the combined spending of several federal agencies, including Defense, Commerce, Homeland Security, Education, the Environmental Protection Agency, the Small Business Administration and the U.S. Postal Service.
"We will likely borrow $2 trillion or more this fiscal year - an astounding figure given that the economy keeps growing and unemployment is low," said Maya MacGuineas, president of the CRFB. "This is likely the tip of the iceberg; borrowing will soar if policymakers fail to get our entitlements under control."
Debt levels, growth and market pricing
The national debt stood at about $39.4 trillion as of July 10. Analysts cited in the reporting warn the figure could double within three decades if current trends persist. Debt-to-GDP has climbed to levels not seen since World War II, even as the economy is expanding at roughly a 2.1% annual rate.
Financial markets are already reacting to the implications of heavier issuance and rising debt service. The 10-year Treasury auction on July 8 cleared at a 4.58% yield, up from 4.538% at the prior auction. The 30-year auction on July 9 cleared at 5.058%, reflecting investor demand for higher compensation to absorb increased supply of government securities.
Policy debate and proposed approaches
MacGuineas framed the political challenge bluntly: "Policymakers should instead be targeting a much more sustainable deficit at 3% of GDP, putting together a bipartisan commission to address our fiscal situation and entitlements, and perhaps most importantly, being honest with the public about the grave dangers we face by remaining on this unsustainable path."
At the same time, voices advocating for AI-assisted budgeting argue that large-language and optimization models could speed identification of fraud, reveal spending redundancies and run fiscal scenarios far faster than traditional budget cycles allow. Supporters point to examples where technology-related revenue gains have been factored into national budgets - the reporting notes South Korea cited revenues tied to an AI chip boom in constructing a record 2027 budget that exceeds $530 billion.
Near-term data that could influence rates
Short-term market pressure could be influenced by upcoming data releases. On Tuesday, July 14, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to publish the June Consumer Price Index. Consensus forecasts referenced in the reporting expect a month-over-month reading of -0.1%, a marked reversal from May’s +0.5%, with core CPI expected at +0.2%. A softer CPI print would ease some upward pressure on the Federal Reserve’s rate path and might reduce future debt-servicing costs at the margin. The following day, June producer price index data will be released, offering a reading on upstream price pressures that can feed into indexed entitlement costs.
Long-run drivers and fiscal room
Trust fund timelines for major entitlement programs add to the fiscal urgency. Social Security and Medicare trust funds are projected to face exhaustion within seven years, a development that CRFB and others cite as a critical driver of long-term borrowing trends. With monthly borrowing averaged at $155 billion while the economy is still growing, options for responding to an economic downturn would be constrained, and current political divides leave no clear consensus on closing the gap.
In sum, the combination of large monthly Treasury issuance, rising net interest payments and limited near-term political remedies has reshaped the policy debate. Proposals range from statutory targets for deficit reduction and bipartisan commissions to accelerated use of AI-enabled tools for budget analysis, but the reporting highlights that consensus on a path forward has not yet emerged.