United Airlines reaffirmed on Wednesday that it expects full-year adjusted earnings per share to land at the high end of its previously announced $9 to $11 range, relying on continued solid travel demand and elevated fares to counteract a new uptick in fuel prices. The announcement came alongside quarterly results that beat expectations on the profit line but offered a third-quarter outlook below the market consensus, a combination that pushed the carrier's stock down roughly 5% in extended trading.
For 2026, United is keeping its adjusted EPS forecast at the top end of the range despite forecasting that its fuel bill will be about $6 billion higher than it had anticipated at the start of the year. The upper bound of management's guidance sits approximately 5% above the $10.46 per share consensus figure compiled by LSEG.
Looking toward the near term, United set third-quarter adjusted earnings guidance at $2.50 to $3.50 per share and expects an average fuel price of $3.69 per gallon for the period. The midpoint of that earnings range is below analysts' average estimate of $3.60 per share, according to LSEG.
On the operational quarter just reported, United posted second-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.99 per share, above the $1.88 estimate. Revenue climbed 16% year over year to $17.7 billion.
Pricing and fuel recovery
United said it recouped roughly half of the rise in fuel costs during the second quarter and expects to recover between 80% and 90% of the current increase in the third quarter. Management also forecast that the company will entirely offset the fuel-cost increase by the fourth quarter.
Company statements attributed the recent jump in oil prices - roughly a 15% rise since the start of July - to renewed hostilities involving the U.S. and Iran. United based its third-quarter and full-year projections on prices as of Tuesday, July 14. The carrier also said that rising crude costs had lifted its expected fuel expenses by about $575 million over the prior two-week period.
United quantified the immediate financial effect, saying its third-quarter earnings guidance would have been $1.12 per share higher if fuel prices had not risen since the beginning of July.
Revenue trends and capacity
The airline continues to anticipate pricing strength: it expects total revenue per available seat mile to grow faster year-on-year in both the third and fourth quarters than the 12.1% increase recorded in the second quarter. At the same time, United said that fourth-quarter schedules that are currently open for sale will be reduced from current levels.
Management planned to discuss the results and outlook on a call with analysts and investors on Thursday morning.
Note: The company based guidance and reported figures on market conditions and price levels as specified above.