Options traders are signaling that United Airlines Holdings Inc. stock may move about 3% when the carrier reports quarterly earnings on July 15 after the market close, based on options data compiled by Bloomberg.
That implied magnitude comes from current option prices ahead of the announcement. It is a market-derived expectation of how far the share price might swing in response to the earnings news and any immediate market reaction.
Historical earnings reactions
Over the past eight earnings releases, United's actual stock moves diverged from options-implied expectations on several occasions. In three of those eight instances, the share price moved by more than the amount options had suggested.
- On April 21, options implied a 6.5% move, while the stock fell 3.7%.
- On January 20, options suggested a 6.2% move and the stock declined 3.8%.
- On October 15, 2025, options indicated a 4.8% move and the stock rose 1.6%.
- On July 16, 2025, the stock jumped 12.3% against an implied move of 6.7%.
- On April 15, 2025, the stock climbed 14.0% compared to an implied move of 8.8%.
- On January 21, 2025, the stock rose 3.1% versus an implied move of 8.5%.
- On October 15, 2024, the stock surged 21.7% against an implied move of 3.7%.
- On July 17, 2024, the stock fell 1.7% compared to an implied move of 7.0%.
The record shows episodes where the market materially underestimated or overestimated the stock's post-earnings reaction as reflected in option pricing. On several dates listed, actual returns exceeded implied ranges, while on others the stock moved less than what options had priced in.
Investors and market participants often look to options-implied moves as a gauge of expected volatility around earnings, but the history above illustrates that realized outcomes can differ substantially from those expectations.
Bottom line - Options indicate a roughly 3% potential intraday move for United when it reports on July 15 after the close, but past earnings have produced varied results relative to implied expectations.