Piper Sandler has raised its price objective for Chevron to $243 from $207, establishing what the firm says is a Street-high target. The brokerage left its rating on the shares unchanged at overweight as it reworked its commodity and refining assumptions based on a revised forecast from its energy strategist.
Analyst John Royall said the updated commodity deck includes a higher Brent outlook, with a third-quarter forecast raised to $88 per barrel from $80 and a fourth-quarter projection now at $90 per barrel, up from the prior $80 assumption for both periods. The firm also increased its refining crack spread expectations, lifting the 3Q and 4Q 321 crack estimates by roughly $2.00 to $2.50 a barrel and adding approximately $5 to its 2027 assumption.
Royall described the refining adjustment as reflecting "continued supply issues on the diesel side lasting well into next year."
Those assumption changes moved Piper Sandler's forecasts notably ahead of the broader market. The firm's projections for the integrated majors now sit about 12% and 27% above Wall Street's consensus for third-quarter 2026 and 2027 EBITDA, respectively. For refiners, Piper's estimates are roughly 15% and 36% higher than consensus for the corresponding periods.
On a segment basis, Royall said the higher downstream and gas assumptions increased third-quarter 2026 and 2027 EBITDA estimates for the global majors by 13% and 14%, respectively, and contributed to average price-target increases of about 13% for the major integrated companies. Targets for refiners rose by an average of 31%.
Despite the upward revisions to targets and earnings forecasts, the analyst maintained existing ratings across his coverage. He said the upside to his price targets means he continues to favor overweight-rated CVX, MPC, and VLO relative to their peers.
In addition to Chevron, Piper Sandler lifted price targets across a swath of energy names. The firm increased BP's target to $46 from $43; Marathon Petroleum Corp. to $462 from $344; Phillips 66 to $264 from $209; Shell to $100 from $89; TTE to $93 from $84; Valero to $435 from $329; and Exxon Mobil to $185 from $158.
The revisions reflect a view of stronger crude pricing and wider refining margins that lift near-term and medium-term earnings estimates for both integrated oil companies and standalone refiners. Piper Sandler's updated modelling and its divergence from consensus underscore the sensitivity of earnings to commodity and crack spread assumptions.
Market context and implications
The firm's changes have broad implications for the energy sector and for market participants tracking earnings and valuation risk in oil producers and refiners. Higher assumed crude prices and refining margins increase forecasted EBITDA and justify the elevated targets, but they also leave estimates vulnerable to future shifts in commodity dynamics and refining supply conditions.