Options traders are pricing in an expected move of about 4% for BlackRock Inc. when the asset manager reports earnings on July 15 prior to the opening bell, according to options data compiled by Bloomberg.
That implied move has not always contained the stock's actual behavior. In the data sample cited, BlackRock's share price exceeded the options-implied magnitude in six of the eight most recent earnings announcements referenced.
Notable historical outcomes include a 9.9% intraday move on April 14, 2026, when the implied move had been 3.9%, and a 7.6% change on January 15, 2026, versus an implied 3.9% move. These two instances represent the largest divergences listed in the dataset.
Other results in the series presented show a mix of smaller-than-expected and slightly larger-than-expected reactions:
- July 15, 2025 - actual decline of 2.8% against an implied move of 2.7%
- April 11, 2025 - actual fall of 1.0% while the implied move was 3.5%
- October 14, 2025 - actual rise of 1.3% against an implied move of 3.3%
- January 15, 2025 - actual gain of 3.3% compared to an implied move of 3.2%
- October 11, 2024 - actual move of 4.1% versus an implied move of 2.8%
- July 15, 2024 - actual move of 4.1% against an implied move of 2.8%
Taken together, the record provided shows instances where the options-implied range underestimated the eventual price change as well as occasions when the implied move was larger than the realized outcome. The upcoming July 15 report will test whether implied volatility again understates the stock's reaction.
Contextual note - The options-implied move cited here reflects market pricing ahead of the company's scheduled pre-market quarterly report on July 15. The historical examples above are the specific earnings-date outcomes and the corresponding implied moves presented in the options data set referenced.