Morgan Stanley has quantified the potential near-term revenue impact of Apple’s (NASDAQ: AAPL) first foldable iPhone, estimating roughly $14 billion in sales for the December quarter tied to the new product. The bank characterizes the upcoming launch as the most significant iPhone form-factor shift since the iPhone X.
Analyst Erik Woodring, writing ahead of Apple’s Sept. 9 event, described the foldable introduction as a pivotal moment for the company. Morgan Stanley expects robust initial consumer demand combined with constrained supply dynamics. The bank models 7 million to 8 million device builds in the second half of 2026, with total units reaching as many as 20 million over the first product cycle.
Central to Morgan Stanley’s view is the event’s role as a test of Apple’s pricing power. The firm anticipates the largest like-for-like iPhone price increases in years, driven in part by elevated component costs. Woodring highlighted rising NAND and DRAM prices as a factor that could push Pro model pricing higher by more than $200 year over year.
On the technical side, the bank singles out the iPhone 18 Pro for a key upgrade: a likely transition to TSMC’s 2nm process, which Morgan Stanley links to higher on-device AI performance. That upgrade is cited as a meaningful enhancement for the Pro model, in the bank’s view.
Supply considerations figure prominently in Morgan Stanley’s outlook. The bank says Apple appears to be prioritizing the procurement of sufficient components rather than worrying about demand, but it warns that memory availability may limit near-term build rates.
Woodring also noted an unusual leadership dynamic for the Sept. 9 presentation: for the first time in 15 years, Tim Cook will not headline the iPhone event. Instead, new CEO John Ternus will lead the unveiling of Apple’s first major iPhone form-factor change in nearly a decade, which Morgan Stanley suggests could be called the iPhone Fold (Ultra?). The bank frames the launch as likely to accompany the broadest and most significant like-for-like iPhone price hikes in the company’s history.
Finally, Morgan Stanley does not expect new base models such as the iPhone 18 or an iPhone Air 2 to arrive until the spring, indicating a staggered product rollout after the foldable debut.
Summary
Morgan Stanley projects roughly $14 billion in December-quarter revenue from Apple’s first foldable iPhone, forecasting strong demand, constrained supply due to memory availability, and substantial like-for-like price increases. The Sept. 9 event will be led by new CEO John Ternus and is viewed as Apple’s most consequential iPhone form-factor change since the iPhone X.
Key points
- The foldable iPhone could contribute about $14 billion to December-quarter revenue, per Morgan Stanley.
- Projected unit builds are 7-8 million in H2 2026 and up to 20 million over the first product cycle, reflecting expected demand and supply limits.
- Rising NAND and DRAM costs are expected to push Pro model pricing more than $200 higher year over year, while a shift to TSMC’s 2nm process is anticipated for the iPhone 18 Pro to boost on-device AI performance.
Risks and uncertainties
- Memory supply constraints may cap near-term device builds, limiting the pace at which units can reach the market - a risk for supply chains and component suppliers.
- Uncertainty around consumer acceptance of significant like-for-like price increases could affect realized revenue, particularly for premium Pro models - a risk for retail and consumer electronics sectors.
- The staggered product rollout, with base iPhone 18 and iPhone Air 2 not expected until spring, could concentrate demand and volatility around the foldable launch period - a distribution and inventory management risk.