Rail traffic in Canada produced mixed results in the latest weekly snapshot released by Raymond James, with Canadian National (CN) volumes down on an annual basis while Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) registered increases.
On a year-over-year basis for the most recent week, CN traffic fell 2.3%. By contrast, CPKC saw traffic climb 3.8% year-over-year. Raymond James flagged specific commodity groups that supported CPKC’s improvement, citing gains in grain, energy chemicals and products, automotive, and intermodal movements.
Looking at quarter-to-date comparisons, CN remained positive overall, up 2.6%. The firm identified a number of CN segments contributing to that quarterly advance: petrochemicals led with a 10.3% increase, automotive volumes were up 8.8%, metals and minerals rose 7.4%, and grain grew 5.0%. Those quarter-to-date gains were tempered by declines in other categories, with coal down 8.6% and intermodal down 3.2% for CN during the quarter-to-date period.
CPKC’s quarter-to-date performance also registered growth, increasing 1.8%. Raymond James pointed to strong quarter-to-date gains in potash, which rose 17.1%, automotive up 14.5%, and grain up 12.3%. Offsetting these increases for CPKC were notable decreases in coal, which was down 29.4%, and forestry, which declined 8.8% on a quarter-to-date basis.
The research note from Raymond James also observed that both rail carriers should face favorable year-over-year comparisons in the weeks ahead. Beyond the raw percentages, the data highlight where momentum is concentrated across commodity groups and where weaknesses remain.
Context and interpretation
The week and quarter-to-date breakdowns show that while both railways are positive on a quarter-to-date basis, the underlying mix of commodities differs. CN’s quarterly strength is concentrated in petrochemicals, automotive, metals and minerals, and grain, even as coal and intermodal weigh on its totals. CPKC’s quarterly gains are driven by potash, automotive and grain, with sharp coal and forestry declines offsetting some of that progress.
Raymond James’ note underscores that upcoming year-over-year comparisons should be more favorable for the carriers, a point that could affect near-term week-to-week percentage changes.