Investors weighing a relative-value position between Alibaba Group Holdings Ltd ADR and Meituan ADR face a clear tradeoff: Alibaba scores better on earnings quality and balance-sheet metrics, while Meituan carries greater modeled upside but is anchored to a loss-making earnings base.
Key snapshot data underpinning the comparison are as follows:
- Alibaba Group Holdings Ltd ADR (BABA): trading at $111.70 as of Sep 3, 3:02 PM EDT; P/E 24.8x as of Jun 30, 2026; Fair Value Upside 24.2% as of Sep 3, 2026; Debt/Equity 25.4% as of Jun 30, 2026.
- Meituan ADR (MPNGY): trading at $19.98 as of Sep 3, 2:47 PM EDT; P/E -10.8x as of Jun 30, 2026; Fair Value Upside 34.4% as of Sep 3, 2026; Debt/Equity 56.6% as of Jun 30, 2026.
On core profitability measures, Alibaba holds the advantage. Its most recent annual EPS stood at $6.38 as of Mar 31, 2026, compared with Meituan’s annual EPS of -$0.56 as of Dec 31, 2025. Return on equity also favors Alibaba - 7.1% versus Meituan’s -21.7% - while Alibaba’s leverage is materially lower.
Meituan’s appeal in this comparison is driven by a larger fair-value upside under the model used to compute those estimates - 34.4% for Meituan versus 24.2% for Alibaba. That theoretical upside, however, is rooted in a company that is loss-making on current reported earnings. The forward P/E cited for Meituan is -93.2x as of Dec 31, 2026, which indicates conventional earnings-based valuation provides limited support at present.
How the spread has evolved
Examining total-return performance across several horizons shows the relative leadership between the two names has oscillated:
- 1 year: Alibaba -18.14% versus Meituan -22.78%; Alibaba led by 4.64 percentage points.
- 6 months: Alibaba -17.62% versus Meituan +4.06%; Alibaba lagged by 21.68 points.
- 3 months: Alibaba -12.19% versus Meituan -1.14%; Alibaba lagged by 11.05 points.
- 1 month: Alibaba -12.25% versus Meituan -15.81%; Alibaba recovered 3.56 points.
- Year-to-date: Alibaba -26.81% versus Meituan -25.01%; Meituan led by 1.80 points.
These numbers show that a long-Alibaba/short-Meituan pairs trade would not have produced a positive outcome over the most recent six-month span. The spread has begun to shift again, with Alibaba making some recovery, but the rebound remains modest relative to the earlier gap.
Technical confirmation and momentum
On the charts, both names are flagged as Strong Sell on daily and weekly timeframes. Specific momentum and level metrics cited are:
- Alibaba: daily RSI 38.0, weekly RSI 42.4. Weekly resistance begins near $118.46.
- Meituan: daily RSI 38.9, weekly RSI 43.7. Daily trend strength is unusually high, with ADX 66.8.
Meituan’s markedly higher ADX implies its downtrend is more firmly established. Alibaba’s momentum readings remain on the bearish side but appear less structurally entrenched compared with Meituan.
Investment takeaway
Alibaba is the stronger candidate when the objective is durable earnings and balance-sheet quality. Meituan holds a larger modeled upside, yet that upside is paired with materially greater earnings risk and higher leverage. For traders considering a pairs trade, current evidence is consistent with a late-stage Meituan leadership phase and a tentative Alibaba rebound - a recovery that has not yet confirmed a regime change.
The practical pivot points to watch are whether Alibaba can reclaim its weekly pivot near $118.46, and whether Meituan remains below its weekly pivot near $20.27. These levels serve as a straightforward mechanical test for a change in relative leadership between the two names.
Historical data availability note: historical data is limited to 10 years on Pro+ plan.