Mexico’s currency is expected to trade close to the familiar midpoint of its long-established range for at least the next year, according to a survey of foreign exchange specialists conducted between June 26 and July 1. The median 12-month forecast among 24 respondents was 17.78 pesos to the U.S. dollar, a projection that corresponds to a modest 1.7% depreciation from the peso’s level of 17.48 on Tuesday.
The survey respondents pointed to hopes for an economic recovery as a central support for the peso. Historically, the currency has moved within a relatively well-defined corridor - with the exception of a sharp fall at the start of 2020 it has traded between 16 and 22 pesos per dollar since July 2015, producing a rough midpoint near 19.
Year to date the peso has strengthened by about 3% against the dollar, remaining relatively firm even as the U.S. currency has gained in recent weeks. Michael Pfister at Commerzbank said this alignment with U.S. momentum is "probably because the USD’s strength is based on expectations of a more robust U.S. real economy from which Mexico should benefit."
Despite market optimism, analysts noted that more concrete signs of an economic rebound are not yet evident in formal forecasts. Uncertainty surrounding the future of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement on trade was cited as a factor that keeps the country’s outlook fragile.
Monetary policy also figures prominently in the outlook for the peso. Mexico’s central bank, Banxico, left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 6.50% last month in a unanimous vote, inaugurating an anticipated pause amid mixed inflation trends. That pause, coupled with a perceived dovish tilt from policymakers in recent meetings, has weighed on the peso’s appeal as a carry-trade target.
Deutsche Bank analysts summarized the dynamic by noting: "While MXN has benefited from a resilient U.S. economy and relatively positive global risk sentiment ... Banxico’s dovish bias in recent meetings has hindered MXN’s carry appeal." They added that they have shifted to a neutral view on the peso and that they prefer the Brazilian real as the regional expression of a bullish stance.
Survey participants were also asked to indicate the skew of their 12-month views. Of 11 contributors answering that additional question on the peso, six signaled a tilt toward a weaker currency, two favored a stronger peso and three reported a neutral bias.
The poll covered views on Brazil’s real as well. Among 13 replies to the additional question on the real, six pointed to depreciation risks, three expected a firmer real and four were neutral. The median 12-month forecast for the real implied a 2.6% weakening to 5.30 per U.S. dollar from 5.16 on Tuesday. The real has risen about 6.2% so far in 2026.
Context for markets and policymakers
FX market expectations reflected in the poll underscore how closely the peso’s path is tied to external demand conditions and domestic policy signals. A resilient U.S. economy lifts expectations for Mexican external demand and supports the currency, while any move by Banxico toward a more dovish posture could reduce interest-rate differentials and diminish carry-driven flows into pesos.
For investors and corporate treasurers, the survey reinforces that prevailing conditions point to limited volatility around a familiar range rather than abrupt directional moves. However, the balance of views among specialists indicates that risks to a softer peso are slightly more common than those for a stronger one over the next 12 months.