Copper edged closer to the $15,000-per-metric-ton mark this week as market participants positioned ahead of U.S. economic data and grappled with unclear U.S. tariff plans. Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange reached an all-time high of $14,779 per metric ton, marking its fourth straight session of gains.
The price advance has been accompanied by large flows of metal into warehouses approved by COMEX in the United States, which market participants say has helped deplete inventories held on the LME and in China - the world’s largest metals consumer. Combined inventories on the LME and the Shanghai Futures Exchange now stand at just over 300,000 tons, a figure that remains under half the size of COMEX stocks, which climbed to a record 695,624 tons.
Analysts and traders pointed to the ongoing uncertainty over proposed U.S. duties as a key driver of speculative interest. The U.S. has floated a plan for a 15% tariff on refined copper imports beginning in 2027, rising to 30% in 2028, but officials have not confirmed whether such duties will be imposed. That ambiguity, traders say, has supported a strong flow of imports into the United States, aided by an open arbitrage window.
"Will it get to $15,000 this week on Trump’s tariff confusion? Sure, that’s possible," said Tom Price, analyst at Panmure Liberum. "You can pick any big number when there’s this much speculative capital behind a trading idea."
Market observers highlight that the combination of speculative capital and an arbitrage incentive has helped swell U.S. warehouse stocks even as headline prices on the LME moved to record levels. The interplay between shifting inventories across trading venues and evolving tariff signals appears to be central to near-term price action.
With traders awaiting additional U.S. economic releases, the market remains focused on whether speculative momentum and inventory flows will be sufficient to push benchmark LME copper to the $15,000 threshold in the coming days.