Overview
The tape is leaning risk-on into the bell. Large caps, tech and small caps are all bid in early dealings, even as gold surges to fresh highs. That pairing, risk appetite alongside haven demand, is the tell of the morning.
Overnight calm on the policy front has stuck so far. A prior volatility burst tied to tariff rhetoric was erased, and equity benchmarks are set to extend Thursday’s rebound. The leadership skews familiar: growth, some cyclicals, and a decisive move in precious metals that underscores how many investors still want insurance.
Macro backdrop
Rates are a shade lower versus earlier in the week, which is fueling duration-sensitive assets. The latest available Treasury curve shows the 10-year at 4.26% and the 30-year at 4.87%, a touch below prior readings, with the 2-year near 3.60% and 5-year at 3.83%. That softening in long-end yields is supportive for high-multiple tech and long-duration equities.
Inflation remains in the “not quite there” zone. The Fed’s preferred gauge, PCE inflation, was reported at 2.8% year-over-year for November. That keeps the central bank patient, not panicked. Meanwhile, one-year inflation expectations modeled near 2.60%, with 5- and 10-year anchors close to 2.33% and 2.32%. Long-run expectations remain steady, which helps explain why the bond market’s drift this week hasn’t sparked a broader equity de-rating.
Growth is still running hot by historical standards. Third-quarter GDP was pegged at 4.4%, with spending and investment doing the heavy lifting. That combination, solid growth with sticky-but-drifting inflation, is a familiar late-cycle mix. For equities, it means multiple expansion has to share the work with earnings delivery. For bonds, it keeps the range trade intact when policy headlines calm down.
Equities
Futures point to a higher open across the board. The broad U.S. market proxy SPY sits above its prior close, with the Nasdaq tracker QQQ and the small-cap gauge IWM also pricing in gains. The Dow proxy DIA is firmer as well.
The growth complex is back in the lead. Tech-heavyweights are stabilizing ahead of a heavy earnings slate: AAPL is modestly higher premarket, MSFT is firm, and AI bellwether NVDA is up as traders parse fresh talk around China chip access. In communication services, there is a split tape. META and GOOGL lean higher while NFLX trades below its prior close as investors keep a wary eye on its planned Warner Bros. deal and heavier spending plans.
Electric vehicles are in focus. TSLA is bid on autonomous headlines and product ambitions even as recent delivery trends and a fierce pricing landscape remain the fundamental debate. That price action captures today’s mood: traders are leaning into cyclicality and innovation when rates are a tailwind.
Defense screens better after a blockbuster European IPO in the sector. LMT and NOC are both up premarket, while RTX is a touch softer. The defense cash-flow story has been a steady haven during policy gusts, and the fresh capital raised overseas adds attention to the space.
On the consumer side, the read is mixed. Discretionary bellwether AMZN is higher, helped by the broader growth bid, while home improvement leader HD ticks below yesterday’s finish. Staples heavyweight PG is stronger even as the sector ETF trends softer, a reminder that single-name stories can diverge from the factor tape.
Financials are catching a bid as the curve steadies. JPM, BAC, and GS all sit above yesterday’s marks. Credit policy chatter remains a headline risk for the group, but today’s focus is squarely on the rate backdrop and the resilient economy.
Sectors
Leadership is clear in early trading. Technology, financials and energy open stronger, with consumer discretionary joining the advance. The tech ETF XLK is poised to extend gains as mega-cap software and semis stabilize. XLF benefits from the modest pullback in longer yields. XLE is marking time slightly higher as crude stabilizes in extended hours.
The laggards line up on the defensive side. Utilities XLU and consumer staples XLP are softer, a classic rotation away from bond proxies when yields ease and risk appetite improves. Industrials XLI are fractionally lower versus the prior close despite strength in select defense names, hinting at some profit-taking after a strong multi-week run. Health care XLV is near flat.
Within communication services, the dispersion is notable. Ad-driven platforms trade better alongside the growth bid, while streaming remains under scrutiny. That disconnect stands out, and it will be crucial as earnings color the ad and subscription spending picture.
Bonds
Duration is steady to firmer. Long Treasurys via TLT are up from yesterday’s close, and the 7–10 year note ETF IEF is flat to slightly higher in early prints. The 1–3 year Treasury fund SHY is fractionally lower. The curve configuration and inflation expectations just under mid-2s for the out-years align with this modest bid for duration.
Investors are still watching the buyer base for Treasurys after recent headlines around foreign participation and political noise. Price action today, though, does not show stress. It shows a market drifting back toward last week’s lanes while it waits for the next macro catalyst.
Commodities
Gold is the story. The gold ETF GLD is sharply higher versus the prior close, tracking a barrage of bullish calls that flag persistent central bank and private demand. Several houses have lifted year-end targets in recent days, and the tape is confirming near-term momentum. Silver via SLV is also surging in early indications. There is debate about whether silver’s move is tired, but price is not agreeing this morning.
Energy is steadier. Crude’s proxy USO closed below yesterday’s mark but is firmer in extended trading, while natural gas via UNG shows gains in premarket quotes after a historic weather-driven spike this week. One major bank called that gas surge an overshoot, arguing it reflects a temporary imbalance. The diversified commodity basket DBC is modestly higher in extended trading.
FX & crypto
The euro trades near 1.174 against the dollar with limited impulse from today’s U.S. setup. Crypto has a heavier tone. Bitcoin hovers under 90,000 on spot quotes after reports of larger holders reducing exposure and haven flows favoring metals. Ether is softer as well. The irony is hard to miss: a custody firm in the space just priced an IPO above range, even as the underlying token complex loses altitude.
Notable headlines
- Gold’s advance is back on the front burner, with multiple forecasts now pointing higher on central bank and private demand.
- Policy volatility has eased after a tariff scare tied to Greenland, with the prior volatility spike unwound.
- Third-quarter GDP growth at 4.4% underscores a still-resilient economy heading into earnings-heavy weeks.
- TikTok formed a U.S. joint venture to keep operating stateside, ending a yearslong saga and removing one regulatory overhang in social media.
- Nvidia’s China narrative took a constructive turn as reports point to approvals for Chinese buyers to acquire its chips.
- Natural gas spiked on a deep freeze, though one bank calls the move an overshoot likely to correct with weather normalization.
- Netflix shares remain under pressure despite subscriber milestones, as investors scrutinize an all-cash push for Warner Bros.
- Bitcoin slipped below 90,000 as whales sold and haven seekers chose metals over tokens.
Risks
- Rate path uncertainty if inflation progress stalls near 3% and expectations drift higher.
- Policy volatility from tariff threats and regulatory actions that spark rapid swings in risk assets.
- Media consolidation scrutiny that could reprice streaming and content names if major deals face hurdles.
- Semiconductor export and approval risks tied to U.S.–China tech flows.
- Energy price shocks from weather or geopolitics feeding back into inflation prints.
- Positioning unwind risk if volatility compresses too far relative to macro and earnings uncertainty.
What to watch next
- Earnings from mega-cap tech, including how AI spending and cloud margins translate to cash flow.
- Semis’ China channel updates and any concrete color on high-end chip shipments.
- Streaming economics as guidance lands against ambitious dealmaking and content budgets.
- Next inflation inputs for confirmation that disinflation is intact after the 2.8% PCE reading.
- Participation quality in the equity advance, including small-cap breadth and sector rotation.
- Gold and silver follow-through after this morning’s surge, and whether crypto stabilizes.
- Defense order books and cross-border deal flow after the sector’s record-setting IPO abroad.
Equity and ETF indications reflect premarket quotes relative to prior closes and may change at the open.