World January 27, 2026

U.S. Population Growth Falls to Lowest Post-Pandemic Pace as Immigration Declines

Census estimates show a 0.5% rise to 341.8 million in year ending June 2025, with net international migration roughly halving

By Nina Shah
U.S. Population Growth Falls to Lowest Post-Pandemic Pace as Immigration Declines

New federal Census Bureau estimates show U.S. population growth slowed to a 0.5% increase in the year ending June 2025, driven largely by a sharp drop in net international migration. Births and deaths were relatively stable, while every state except Montana and West Virginia reported slower growth. The slowdown coincides with intensified immigration enforcement and raises questions about labor supply in some industries.

Key Points

  • Population growth slowed to 0.5% in the year ending June 2025, with the U.S. population at 341.8 million.
  • The primary contributor to the slowdown was a sharp drop in net international migration, which fell to 1.3 million from 2.7 million.
  • Sectors reliant on immigrant labor, notably construction, have experienced reduced labor supply, and regional population shifts could affect local labor markets and housing demand.

New U.S. population estimates released by the Census Bureau indicate that growth has slowed to its lowest rate since the COVID-19 pandemic. For the 12 months ending in June 2025, the United States added 1.8 million people, an increase of 0.5%, bringing the national population to 341.8 million residents.

The agency attributed much of the deceleration to changes in international migration. Globally, net international migration during the same 12-month period fell to 1.3 million from 2.7 million, and the Census Bureau singled out the sharp decline in net international migration as the principal driver of the slower U.S. growth rate.

"With births and deaths remaining relatively stable compared to the prior year, the sharp decline in net international migration is the main reason for the slower growth rate we see today," said Christine Hartley, assistant division chief for Estimates and Projections at the Census Bureau.

The timing of the data spans two presidential administrations: the final six months of the previous Democratic president's term and the first six months of the current Republican president's term. The current administration has emphasized a crackdown on immigration as a central policy objective and is preparing to continue enforcement measures, including a planned increase in funding for Immigration and Customs Enforcement in 2026.

Immigration enforcement has prompted political and public scrutiny. The agency faces backlash over its tactics after an incident in Minnesota this month in which U.S. agents killed two U.S. citizens, among other shootings. Those events have amplified debates about the enforcement approach while the administration moves to expand resources for immigration operations.

Economists have not reached a single conclusion about the full economic consequences of slower population growth, but some have noted that recent immigration policies have reduced labor supply in particular sectors. The construction industry is one sector explicitly identified as experiencing labor shortages linked to immigration actions, according to the Census Bureau's reporting of economists' observations.

At the state level, population patterns remain uneven. South Carolina posted the fastest growth among the 50 states, followed by Idaho, North Carolina, Texas and Utah. Conversely, five states recorded population declines: California, Hawaii, New Mexico, Vermont and West Virginia. Every state except Montana and West Virginia saw its rate of growth slow during the period.

Net domestic migration patterns also shifted. Florida, which previously attracted large inflows from other U.S. states, recorded a much smaller domestic migration gain for the period ending in June: 22,517 people moved to Florida from other states, compared with 183,646 in 2023 and 310,892 in 2022, according to the Census Bureau's estimates.

The Census data highlights demographic trends that could have implications for labor markets and regional economies. While births and deaths remained largely stable year over year, the reduction in international migration is the salient factor in the recent slowdown. How that will translate into longer-term economic outcomes remains uncertain in the data presented.


Key takeaways

  • U.S. population rose by 1.8 million, or 0.5%, to 341.8 million in the year ending June 2025.
  • Net international migration fell to 1.3 million from 2.7 million and is identified as the main cause of slower population growth.
  • State growth was uneven: fastest in South Carolina; declines in California, Hawaii, New Mexico, Vermont and West Virginia.

Risks

  • Uncertain economic impact of slower population growth, which could weigh on labor availability and growth in affected industries.
  • Heightened immigration enforcement and related controversy - including recent agent-involved deaths and subsequent backlash - may create policy and operational uncertainty for enforcement agencies.
  • Continued declines in migration to certain states may exacerbate regional labor shortages and strain sectors that depend on in-migration for workforce replenishment, such as construction.

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