World April 9, 2026 12:27 PM

U.S. Fertility Rate Falls to Record Low in 2025; Births Drop to About 3.6 Million

Provisional CDC statistics show sustained decline driven by fewer births among women under 30 despite modest gains for older age groups

By Derek Hwang
U.S. Fertility Rate Falls to Record Low in 2025; Births Drop to About 3.6 Million

Provisional data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention indicate the U.S. recorded its lowest fertility rate on record in 2025, continuing a nearly 20-year downward trend. The general fertility rate fell 1% to 53.1 births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44, and the total number of births declined about 1% to roughly 3.6 million. While fertility rates for women in their 30s rose modestly, larger decreases among younger women, including teenagers and those aged 25 to 29, drove the overall decline.

Key Points

  • U.S. general fertility rate fell 1% in 2025 to 53.1 births per 1,000 women aged 15-44, with total births declining roughly 1% to about 3.6 million.
  • Fertility has declined nearly 23% since 2007 according to CDC data; younger women, particularly those under 30 and teenagers, drove the recent decreases while women in their 30s and 40s experienced modest increases.
  • Sectors that could be affected by sustained lower birth rates include long-term labor force trends, consumer-facing industries that rely on younger household formation, and public services tied to demographic demand - though the report itself focuses on statistical trends rather than economic projections.

Provisional figures released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show the United States reached a new low in its fertility rate in 2025, extending a decline that has persisted for nearly two decades. The data reflect a broader global pattern in which fewer women are choosing to have children amid shifting social conditions.

The CDC reported the general fertility rate - defined as births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44 - slipped 1% to 53.1 in 2025. The total number of babies born in the United States last year decreased by about 1% from 2024, falling to roughly 3.6 million births.

The agency's records indicate that the U.S. general fertility rate has dropped nearly 23% since 2007. Experts cited in the report attribute part of the trend to changing priorities among younger women. As Phillip Levine, an economics professor at Wellesley College, put it, "greater and more demanding job market opportunities, expanded leisure options, increased intensity of parenting... make the option to have children less desirable."

Age-specific patterns in the provisional data show a mixed picture. Fertility rates among women in their 30s and 40s have inched higher over the past decade, yet those gains have not been sufficient to counteract continued declines among women under 30. In 2025 the fertility rate for women aged 25 to 29 fell by about 4.4%, while the rate for women aged 30 to 34 increased by about 2.7% compared with 2024.

Rates among teenagers fell sharply and reached record lows. The fertility rate for 18- to 19-year-olds dropped 7%, while the rate for younger teens aged 15 to 17 declined 11% year-over-year, with both age groups recording their lowest levels to date.

The provisional dataset underlying these findings was based on 99.95% of all birth records received and processed for 2025 by the National Center for Health Statistics, part of the CDC, as of February 3, 2026. The agency characterizes the figures as provisional pending final processing.


What the data show

  • The overall number of U.S. births in 2025 fell about 1% to roughly 3.6 million.
  • The general fertility rate declined 1% to 53.1 births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44.
  • Fertility has decreased nearly 23% since 2007.

Age-group dynamics

  • Women aged 25 to 29 - fertility rate down about 4.4% in 2025 from 2024.
  • Women aged 30 to 34 - fertility rate up about 2.7% in 2025 from 2024.
  • Teenagers - 18-19 years: down 7%; 15-17 years: down 11% - both at record lows.

The CDC's provisional report underscores continuing demographic shifts that are concentrated among younger cohorts. While some older age groups have experienced modest increases, the reductions in birth rates for those under 30 have been the dominant force behind the new low in the national fertility rate.

Risks

  • The modest increases in fertility among women in their 30s and 40s have not been large enough to offset larger declines in younger age groups, introducing uncertainty over whether the overall downward trend will continue.
  • The figures are provisional, based on 99.95% of birth records received and processed by the National Center for Health Statistics as of February 3, 2026, which means final numbers could still be subject to small revisions.
  • Shifting priorities cited by experts - including changes in labor market engagement, leisure choices, and parenting intensity - may persist or evolve, creating uncertainty about future fertility patterns and their timing.

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