Overview
As diplomatic efforts falter, Ukrainian commanders are preparing to resist a fresh Russian spring offensive directed at a string of fortified cities in eastern Donetsk commonly referred to as the "Fortress Belt." Kyiv hopes to leverage recent tactical successes and an expanding use of mid-range drone strikes to blunt Moscow's momentum along multiple axes of the front.
Analysts and Ukrainian military officials say the campaign Moscow has long been expected to mount is already showing signs of activity. Over the last week, Russian forces have launched a battalion-size attack northeast of Sloviansk - the Fortress Belt's northern anchor - and conducted smaller assaults near Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka at the southern end of the belt. The pattern appears aimed at creating conditions for a wider push toward the defended cities.
Security dynamics on the ground
Local authorities in Sloviansk reported evacuating children after Russian forces advanced to within about 20 km east of the city, a clear indicator of the deteriorating security situation on that sector of the front.
Despite being numerically superior, Russian units are not guaranteed unfettered gains, according to observers who point to improved Ukrainian tactics and an evolving drone strike capability. "Russia still has enough manpower to keep advancing this year," said Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. "How far they're going to get is an open question."
Ukraine enters the spring campaign having recovered some ground on the southeastern front in a recent tactical success. Kyiv has also benefited operationally from disruptions to Russian military communications after tighter controls were imposed on a commercial satellite internet service, a shift Ukrainian officials say helped their battlefield efforts.
Ukrainian authorities contend they are now eliminating more Russian troops than Moscow is recruiting, which is a central element of the Defence Minister's technology-driven, metrics-focused strategy. Russia rejects Ukrainian accounts of its losses.
Wider geopolitical and resource pressures
The intensification of combat coincides with international distractions and resource shifts that complicate external support for Ukraine. A separate conflict in the Middle East has diverted some U.S. attention away from mediation efforts and, according to analysts cited by Ukrainian officials, has contributed to higher oil prices that bolster Russian state revenues.
That same regional war has strained inventories of U.S.-supplied air-defence systems that Ukraine depends on to protect its cities, energy infrastructure and military positions, according to Ukrainian assessments. Domestically, Kyiv faces fiscal stress after a European Union loan package was blocked, and the armed forces continue to search for sufficient recruits to reinforce front-line units.
Key sectors of focus along the front
Russian winter operations produced grinding gains in several areas, including nearly all of Pokrovsk, an eastern logistics hub. Ukrainian commanders in the sector say they have not seen clear signs that Moscow is amassing forces for a single decisive assault there. Instead, they expect Russia to attempt coordinated pressure - combining efforts around Pokrovsk with sieges of Kostiantynivka and Sloviansk to "shake" multiple axes simultaneously.
"They'll try to break our battle formations, rupture them where there's a weak point, and then exploit that," said Yevhen Lasiychuk, commander of Ukraine's 7th Rapid Response Corps. "The tactics haven't changed - we understand them."
Ukraine's General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted more than 600 assaults across several sectors of the front during a recent four-day period, including 163 near Pokrovsk and 84 near Kostiantynivka. Moscow's chief of the General Staff described the offensive as "underway in all directions" and identified Sloviansk, Kramatorsk and Kostiantynivka as focal points.
Armoured operations and drone countermeasures
Recent fighting in northern Donetsk has involved a notable presence of armoured vehicles, a development that stands out because the use of such formations has become more limited due to their exposure to drone attacks. Some analysts interpret the renewed employment of armour as a sign Moscow is attempting to force breakthroughs, though others note these attacks have not been consistently successful.
One security analyst observed that while Russia may continue to advance by a few hundred square kilometres per month, the broader dynamics on the battlefield are not clearly shifting in its favour. The U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War similarly expects only "some tactical gains" for Russia around the Fortress Belt rather than a major rupture in the near term.
Zaporizhzhia and the open terrain challenge
Farther south in Zaporizhzhia region, Russian forces are conducting slow, ground-level advances across open lowlands roughly 70 km east of the regional capital. Defenders there face the difficulty of protecting large tracts of steppe - terrain that offers few natural obstacles to an advancing force and limited opportunities for concealment.
"Zaporizhzhia is the steppe ... where there are no geographic obstacles that might hinder the enemy's advance or allow us to hide easily," said Oleh Shyriaiev, commander of the 225th Separate Assault Regiment, whose unit was deployed around Huliaipole this winter to help halt sudden Russian gains. Russian elements are also attempting to push through a narrow corridor about 20 km south of heavily industrialised Zaporizhzhia city.
Modest Ukrainian gains and evolving strike capabilities
Kyiv's forces reported modest territorial gains last month - about 400 sq km by Ukrainian accounting - a reversal from recent months and, Ukrainian officials note, the first time since the previous summer that Ukrainian troops reclaimed more ground than they lost compared with Russian captures reported for the same period. Russia claims it captured 6,000 sq km overall in 2025.
Ukrainian charity and military-support organisations point to those advances as a tangible demonstration that Moscow is not invulnerable. Analysts and Ukrainian commanders attribute part of this progress to the professionalism and morale of battle-hardened Ukrainian units and to their increasingly integrated use of drones during assaults to exploit gaps and target logistical nodes.
Long-range strikes by Ukrainian intelligence services and the Unmanned Systems Forces have targeted strategic Russian infrastructure - including fuel depots, refineries, and munitions production sites - while Kyiv expands mid-range drone strike capabilities that allow frontline units to hit personnel and supply nodes at ranges of 50 km or more.
"It doesn't matter whether it's an ammunition depot or food storage - both are critical targets," Lasiychuk said. "A soldier won't fight without food." He added that better coordination among drone units in his corps has improved planning and target allocation.
Outlook
Ukraine's approach for the coming period combines holding key defensive lines around the Fortress Belt, reinforcing areas of recent tactical success, and pushing the integration of drones and other technology into offensive and defensive actions. However, external political distractions, constraints on air-defence supplies, funding interruptions and recruitment shortfalls create strategic vulnerabilities that Kyiv must manage even as it seeks to impose higher costs on Russian advances.
The precise scale of any Russian breakthroughs remains uncertain. Both Ukrainian commanders and international analysts expect continued fighting with likely incremental territorial shifts rather than a decisive change in control over major cities in the immediate term.