Taiwan is expressing concern that China may take advantage of American military redeployments linked to the Middle East conflict, after Beijing resumed significant air force activity near the island following a recent lull.
Officials in Taipei point to the resumption of large-scale incursions by Chinese aircraft on March 14 and 15 as evidence that Beijing seeks to capitalize on a shifting U.S. force posture as assets are redirected to support operations in the Iran war. The Taiwanese government and security sources say the pattern of increased sorties and military signaling follows an earlier period of lower activity and could reflect an opportunistic strategy.
"This is a moment for China to exercise influence," said a senior Taiwan security official, who declined to be named because of the sensitivity of intelligence matters. "What China is trying to create is a sense that when the U.S. shifts forces away and Indo-Pacific strength is redirected to the Middle East, tension and instability should be manufactured."
Taiwan’s defence ministry reiterated statements made by Defence Minister Wellington Koo earlier in the month, noting Beijing’s long-standing objective. Koo said China’s "intention to annex us by force has always existed," underlining Taipei’s view that the risk remains persistent regardless of wider geopolitical distractions.
At the same time, a Taiwan security source argued that U.S. military deployments have historically been balanced across regions and that a movement of some assets would not necessarily create an exploitable gap for Beijing. In Washington, a State Department spokesperson told reporters that the U.S. military’s capacity to deal with simultaneous global threats remains "formidable," and stressed the United States’ commitment to maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.
Analysts and Taiwanese officials say the length and character of the Middle East conflict could change Beijing’s calculations. Chang Kuo-cheng, a professor of international relations at Taipei Medical University, said a protracted war in the region would strain U.S. weapon stocks, shift attention away from the Asia-Pacific and amplify domestic anti-war sentiment in the United States. "All these factors may lead Xi Jinping to believe that, in exerting greater pressure on Taiwan or even using force against Taiwan, his position would be stronger than before this war began," Chang said.
Chang also noted that an extended conflict provides more real-world examples for China to study U.S. military decision-making and response patterns, potentially informing Chinese planning if Beijing contemplates action toward Taiwan.
Aside from kinetic military moves, Taipei is alert to a parallel campaign Beijing may be conducting through information operations. An internal government memo reviewed by officials noted concern over "cognitive warfare," including the use of AI-generated online videos portraying a severe post-conflict energy crisis in Taiwan. One Taiwan security official described the intent: "They want people to think that one day, when Taiwan is again encircled by the Chinese military, the public will lose confidence in energy issues."
Chinese state messaging has included offers framed as benefits of reunification, with a Taiwan Affairs Office statement promoting improved infrastructure and even proposing a "rapid transit link" such as a Beijing-Taipei expressway. Earlier, China offered energy security to Taiwan if it accepted governance by Beijing - an offer Taipei’s Deputy Economy Minister Ho Chin-tsang dismissed as another example of cognitive warfare.
State-run Chinese media have also drawn parallels between equipment used in the Iran conflict and the systems that would be relevant in any Taiwan contingency. Researchers and commentators in mainland outlets have suggested that Taiwanese radar arrays could be vulnerable to the kinds of attacks reported against U.S.-supplied systems in the Middle East, and warned that radar stations might fare poorly under "saturation attacks" from the People’s Liberation Army.
Liu Kuangyu, a researcher at the Institute of Taiwan Studies within a government-affiliated think tank, said Taiwan’s radars would be "instantly reduced to scrap metal" in such attacks, remarks published by a China Media Group web platform. The United States has not confirmed reports of comparable Iranian strikes, but Chinese commentary has seized on those incidents to question the real-world reliability of U.S. systems.
China’s military-focused broadcaster also highlighted perceived shortfalls in American equipment during the Iran war, citing an onboard fire aboard the Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier and asserting that "from the outbreak of the war up to now, the real combat performance of U.S. weapons and equipment has differed markedly from the image widely perceived by the outside world," a post on its WeChat account said on March 16.
External observers note that the conflict provides Beijing an observational opportunity. Todd Harrison, a defence analyst, said the Iran war allows China to study U.S. military operations, particularly high-end assets like the F-35 and the employment of air and missile defence systems. "They’re also going to be collecting (data) on how well our air and missile defence systems work and how we employ them," Harrison said.
In response to rising regional uncertainty, Taipei is seeking to bolster its own defence capabilities. The government has proposed an additional $40 billion in defence spending to strengthen deterrence and resilience. Officials are also closely watching the diplomatic track: a planned summit between U.S. and Chinese leaders in Beijing, expected to discuss Taiwan among other issues, has been postponed from early April.
Shen Yu-chung, a deputy minister at Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council who handles cross-strait policy, said the government anticipated the summit would include Taiwan on the agenda but acknowledged Taipei had no means to influence the talks. "However, we must ... present a clear and consistent message to the outside world, that we are determined to rely on our own national defence to safeguard our sovereignty," he said.
For Taipei, the combination of renewed military activity near the island, state-run narratives questioning the effectiveness of U.S. systems, and offers framed as incentives for reunification have sharpened concerns that Beijing could seek to test or exploit a moment when U.S. focus and materiel are otherwise engaged. Taiwan’s authorities are balancing diplomatic signals with a push to strengthen domestic defence readiness while monitoring both kinetic threats and information operations aimed at undermining public confidence in energy and security.