Moody's Ratings has reaffirmed Sweden's Aaa long-term issuer and senior unsecured bond ratings and retained a stable outlook, the agency said after a rating committee meeting on Feb. 17, 2026. The decision also included affirmation of Sweden's Prime-1 commercial paper rating and other programme-level debt ratings.
According to Moody's, the affirmation reflects Sweden's very strong economic, fiscal and institutional fundamentals. The agency highlighted the country's wealthy, highly diversified economy and its substantial capacity to absorb shocks. Government debt was reported at about 34% of GDP in 2025 and is expected to remain within the government's debt anchor of 35% plus or minus 5% over the medium term.
On the growth front, Sweden's real GDP expanded by 1.7% in 2025 following a period of sub-potential performance. Moody's projects a stronger growth phase in 2026 - forecasting 3.0% growth - driven by robust private consumption, investment and export growth. The agency expects growth to moderate to 2.3% in 2027.
Moody's also flagged a rise in geopolitical risks, citing Russia's war in Ukraine and a gradual disengagement by the United States as a security guarantor for Europe. The agency referenced the sovereign ratings on the relevant actors as context (Russia - Ca stable; U.S. - Aa1 stable). In response to these security dynamics, Sweden's defence-related spending is increasing, and Moody's noted that much of this higher spending will be financed through additional public borrowing.
Despite the anticipated increase in debt associated with defence commitments, Moody's judges that Sweden's public debt levels are expected to remain low relative to peers. The stable outlook reflects the agency's view that the country's underlying credit strengths - including its economic fundamentals and institutional resilience - are likely to persist even as geopolitical challenges endure.
The rating committee concluded that Sweden's economic fundamentals, institutional strength, fiscal position and susceptibility to event risks had not changed materially, and therefore the existing ratings and outlook remain appropriate.