Machado Says Venezuela Could Hold Elections This Year, Citing Possibility of Manual Voting

Venezuelan opposition figure Maria Corina Machado told Politico she believes national elections might take place later this year, saying a transfer using manual voting could be completed in nine to ten months depending on when the process begins. Machado emphasized popular support and backing from parts of the armed forces, and her recent meetings with U.S. officials followed the U.S. capture of long-time leader Nicolas Maduro. Questions remain about the interim leadership’s alignment with U.S. policy.

Key Points

Maria Corina Machado told Politico she believes an electoral transfer with manual voting could be completed in nine to ten months, depending on when it begins - impacting political stability expectations.
Machado's party said it won 70% of the vote in Venezuela's 2024 election; she has met with U.S. officials, including former President Trump and top diplomats, following the U.S. capture of Nicolas Maduro - relevant to diplomatic and geopolitical dynamics.
U.S. officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, signaled movement toward closer ties with Venezuela's new leaders, while U.S. intelligence has questioned whether interim President Delcy Rodriguez is fully aligned with the transition strategy - factors that could affect investor and regional policy considerations.

Maria Corina Machado told Politico she believes Venezuela could hold elections later this year, saying a transition organized around manual voting could be completed in nine to ten months - though she added the timetable depends on when preparations start.

In the interview released on Thursday, Machado said:

"We believe that a real transferring process with manual voting could be done in nine to 10 months,"

and qualified that timeframe by adding, "But, well, that depends when you start."

Machado's party has asserted it won 70% of the vote in Venezuela's 2024 election. She recently met with former U.S. President Donald Trump and also spoke with his top diplomat and with U.S. lawmakers last month following the U.S. capture of the country's long-time leader Nicolas Maduro, according to her comments to Politico.

Addressing the political dynamics at home, Machado told Politico:

"We have a legitimate leadership with huge popular support and our armed forces are also supportive of a transition to democracy."

She also said she had not yet discussed electoral procedures with Trump.

Separately, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told U.S. lawmakers at a Jan. 28 hearing that Venezuela's new leaders were moving toward closer ties with Washington before he met with Machado later that day. Machado's interactions with U.S. officials came amid a shifting diplomatic environment following Maduro's capture.

U.S. intelligence reports have raised questions about whether interim President Delcy Rodriguez is fully aligned with the strategy being pursued for the country's transition and whether she plans to formally sever ties with U.S. adversaries. Machado noted that while Trump has said he was considering getting her "involved some way," he has also backed Rodriguez.

Implications and context

The timeline Machado described hinges on a series of political and logistical choices, including when a handover process would begin and whether voting would be conducted manually. Her account highlights both domestic support claims and ongoing diplomatic engagement with U.S. officials as key elements shaping the prospects for an electoral timetable.

What remains unclear from the interview

Specific start date for any transition process was not provided by Machado.
No details were given on the mechanics of implementing manual voting at scale.
Questions raised by U.S. intelligence about interim leadership intentions were noted but not resolved in Machado's remarks.

Risks

Uncertainty over the start date and practical rollout of a manual voting process could delay elections and prolong political instability - affecting domestic markets and sectors reliant on political certainty such as consumer staples and distribution networks.
Ambiguity around interim leadership intentions, as flagged by U.S. intelligence, creates a risk that planned diplomatic shifts or policy alignments may not materialize - impacting international trade relations and investor confidence.
Divergent U.S. political signals, including support for different Venezuelan figures, raise the possibility of inconsistent external engagement that could complicate transition negotiations and economic planning.

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