April 10 - A two-week ceasefire agreed between the United States and Iran is under immediate pressure, with both strategic maritime traffic and regional hostilities revealing unresolved frictions a day before scheduled talks in Pakistan.
U.S. officials accused Tehran of not honoring commitments to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while military action along the Israel-Lebanon front added another layer of contention that Iran says breaches the truce. There was no indication that Iran had eased its near-total blockade of the strait, a development that officials warn has produced the worst-ever disruption to global energy supplies.
U.S. President Donald Trump wrote on social media late on Thursday that Iran was doing a "very poor job" of allowing oil to transit the strait. "That is not the agreement we have!" he added. In a separate post he said oil would begin flowing again, without specifying what measures the United States might take to secure shipments.
During the first 24 hours after the truce came into effect, just a single oil products tanker and five dry bulk carriers passed through the waterway. That contrasts sharply with pre-conflict traffic levels: the strait typically handled about one-fifth of the worlds oil and liquefied natural gas flows and around 140 vessels a day before the war.
Fresh exchanges on the Israel-Lebanon front
On Friday morning, Israels military reported it had struck 10 rocket launchers in Lebanon that were used to fire on northern Israel the previous evening. The military also said Iran-allied Hezbollah had launched a missile toward Israel, triggering air sirens; that missile was reported intercepted. Hezbollah stated it had targeted Israeli military infrastructure in the northern port city of Haifa.
The ceasefire agreed between Washington and Tehran has been presented differently by the parties involved. The United States and Israel have said the arrangement does not cover Lebanon, where Israel launched a campaign last month aimed at dismantling Hezbollahs capabilities. By contrast, Iran and the Pakistani mediator maintain that Lebanon was explicitly included in the deal.
Irans Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, who is expected to lead the Iranian delegation opposite U.S. Vice President JD Vance in Pakistan, wrote on social media that Lebanon and other members of Irans regional "axis" of allies are inseparable components of any ceasefire arrangement.
In a strong public statement on Thursday, Irans Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei vowed retribution for the conflict, saying: "We will certainly not leave unpunished the criminal aggressors who attacked our country. We will undoubtedly demand compensation for every single damage inflicted."
Timing and negotiation agenda
The two-week truce, brokered by Pakistan, was announced just hours before a deadline that President Trump had warned would trigger U.S. strikes on Iranian infrastructure such as power plants and bridges, and the potential destruction of "a whole civilization." The ceasefire set the stage for U.S.-Iran negotiations scheduled to begin on Saturday in Pakistan, aimed at resolving a conflict that escalated after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28.
On Wednesday Iran presented a 10-point settlement proposal. The package calls for, among other things, Iran retaining control of the Strait of Hormuz, international acceptance of Irans right to nuclear enrichment, the lifting of sanctions, and an end to hostilities including actions against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Thursday he had instructed officials to commence peace talks as soon as possible that would include disarming Hezbollah, even as he stated Israel would continue operations against the group. "The negotiations will focus on disarming Hezbollah and establishing peaceful relations between Israel and Lebanon," he said. Last month Netanyahus government rejected an offer for direct talks with Lebanon.
A senior Lebanese official described efforts over the previous day to secure a temporary ceasefire as a means to open broader negotiations with Israel, characterizing the initiative as a "separate track but the same model" as the U.S.-Iran truce. Israeli officials indicated preparations to scale down attacks in Lebanon, with one senior Israeli official saying such a reduction was being planned.
U.S. media outlets reported that President Trump asked Netanyahu to be more "low-key" in Lebanon. Another Israeli official said talks with Lebanon were expected to begin in Washington next week. A U.S. State Department official confirmed the United States would host next weeks meeting to "discuss ongoing ceasefire negotiations."
Hezbollah lawmaker Ali Fayyad issued a statement on Thursday rejecting direct negotiations with Israel and calling on the Lebanese government to insist on a ceasefire as a precondition for any further steps.
Implications for energy and regional stability
The continued blockage of the Strait of Hormuz during the early hours of the ceasefire underlines the fragility of arrangements meant to normalize movement of energy shipments. With just one oil products tanker transiting in the first day and typical pre-war traffic at roughly 140 ships daily, the disruption represents a material squeeze on global energy logistics and supplies. The competing views on whether Lebanon was covered by the ceasefire add another source of volatility for diplomatic and military dynamics in the region as negotiators prepare to enter talks in Pakistan.
For now, the immediate path to de-escalation passes through the scheduled negotiations, but the mix of maritime blockade, cross-border strikes and differing interpretations of the truce create a precarious environment for both diplomatic progress and the stabilization of energy flows.