WASHINGTON, April 8 - In a dramatic reversal Tuesday evening, U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew threats to target Iran's civilian infrastructure. The announcement accompanied a Pakistan-brokered two-week ceasefire between Tehran and Washington, but the situation on the ground remained unsettled.
Ceasefire status and ongoing violence
Whether a genuine ceasefire is in effect is unclear. Although both sides agreed to a two-week pause, violence continued into Wednesday. Israel mounted what were described as its largest strikes yet on Lebanon, focusing on positions linked to the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia. Lebanese authorities reported that buildings were destroyed and that dozens of people were killed without warning. Iran said it was weighing retaliatory strikes against Israel.
At the same time, Iran carried out attacks on oil installations in neighboring Gulf states. Among the targets was a large pipeline in Saudi Arabia that has been used to bypass the blockaded Strait of Hormuz, according to an oil industry source. Kuwait, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates also reported missile and drone attacks. The United States said it had halted its own strikes on Iran but warned it was prepared to resume military action if efforts to secure a longer-term peace failed.
Access through the Strait of Hormuz
Control of the Strait of Hormuz remains a major point of contention. Iranian state television reported that a first vessel had transited the chokepoint with Tehran's permission after the ceasefire was announced. However, shipping sources indicated the Iranian navy was at times threatening ships with destruction should they attempt to pass without authorization.
A senior Iranian official suggested Iran might lift its blockade on Thursday or Friday ahead of planned peace talks, but stressed that vessels would still need Tehran's permission to transit. President Trump said the two-week pause requires Iran to reopen the strait. Iran's Supreme National Security Council, however, said Washington had agreed in principle to continued Iranian control over passage.
Marine traffic records showed that two Greek-owned ships and a Chinese bulk carrier had passed through the strait since early Wednesday. The report noted that Iran had previously arranged safe-passage agreements with several countries including India and Iraq. At the same time, German shipping company Hapag-Lloyd warned that it could take at least six weeks for traffic volumes to return to pre-conflict levels.
Oil market response
Oil prices fell sharply below $100 per barrel after the ceasefire announcement, as traders factored in the possibility that roughly 20 percent of global supply constrained by the conflict might be restored. The decline marked a steep drop from late-March highs near $118 per barrel, though prices remained elevated relative to prewar figures.
On Wednesday, Brent crude was trading at $94 per barrel, compared with $70.75 before the conflict began on February 28. The U.S. West Texas Intermediate benchmark was at $95, versus $65 before the war. Analysts cautioned that prices could surge again if hostilities resumed or if Iran maintained its blockade. Damage to oil infrastructure caused by the fighting could also complicate efforts to return production to prewar levels. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said ongoing uncertainty about future disruptions may keep prices elevated.
Prospects for negotiations
Whether peace talks will produce lasting results remains unclear. Both Iran and the United States have declared tactical victories, but they approach negotiations with sharply divergent objectives.
- Iran's stated demands include an end to all regional fighting, explicitly citing Lebanon; the withdrawal of all U.S. forces from the region; lifting of international sanctions; the right to continue enriching uranium; and continued control over the Strait of Hormuz.
- The U.S. position calls for Iran to stop enriching uranium and to remove existing stockpiles; to curb its ballistic missile program; and to cease funding regional proxies, among other demands.
The differences in these agendas underscore the uncertainty that negotiators will face in the coming days.
What remains unsettled
The ceasefire has introduced a temporary lull but has left core disputes unresolved. Questions about who will control maritime transit, the extent of damage to regional energy infrastructure, and whether either side will re-escalate military operations all remain open. Markets and shipping operators are watching closely for indications that the ceasefire will hold and for signals about how quickly trade and oil flows might normalize.