Hook & thesis
Sportradar (SRAD) is one of the clearest plays on structural growth in sports data and betting technology in 2026. The company combines recurring, high-margin data and tech contracts with a growing media and streaming angle. Recent strategic moves - most notably the IMG ARENA acquisition and an expanded Bundesliga partnership - should accelerate revenue and cash conversion while compressing the revenue-to-cash lag that has historically weighed on sentiment.
Technically, SRAD is attractive today: the stock traded as low as $17.73 on 01/27/2026 and sits at $18.57 with an RSI of 29.3, indicating an oversold condition. That set-up plus improving fundamentals - 14% YoY revenue growth, 29% EBITDA growth and record 29% margins last year - creates an asymmetric trade: limited absolute downside to a sensible stop and multi-bagger upside if management executes on integration and media monetization.
What the company does and why the market should care
Sportradar provides sports betting and entertainment technology, including Betting Technology & Solutions and Sports Content, Technology & Services. The product mix is recurring by design: sportsbooks and media firms pay for live data feeds, integrity services, odds solutions and streaming products. Those contracts are sticky and scale well; once a feed is integrated the switching cost is high.
Why it matters now: the wagering market is maturing globally, and sportsbooks are shifting spend from acquisition and marketing toward product and data that increase margins. Sportradar is positioned as one of two major global suppliers in many categories, giving it pricing power. Management is also pushing up-market with premium rights (IMG ARENA) and new AI-driven streaming and live-player markets that broaden monetization beyond pure betting fees into advertising and media revenue.
Hard numbers that support the bull case
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current price | $18.57 |
| Market cap | $5.77B |
| P/E ratio | 52.49 |
| Price / Book | 4.96 |
| Shares outstanding | 310,951,672 |
| Recent growth (reported) | 14% YoY revenue growth; 29% EBITDA growth; record 29% margins |
| 52-week range | High $32.22 (08/25/2025) - Low $17.73 (01/27/2026) |
| RSI (momentum) | 29.34 (oversold) |
Those numbers tell a consistent story: the business is growing and becoming more profitable. Management guided to at least 15% sales growth in 2025 and has announced M&A and product rollouts that should lift both top-line acceleration and margin expansion. The IMG ARENA acquisition (announced 03/19/2025) expanded premium streaming and rights ownership, increasing the company’s addressable market in high-value leagues.
Valuation framing
At ~$5.77B market cap and a P/E of ~52x, Sportradar trades at a premium to many broad software names but a discount to some high-growth media-rights companies when you adjust for the recurring nature of its contracts and improving margins. The multiple reflects two things: (1) expected multi-year revenue growth above the software median and (2) optionality from media/advertising monetization and streaming where revenue is less linear to the betting cycle.
Put another way: the market is pricing premium growth into the stock. If Sportradar can sustain mid-teens revenue growth and convert a larger portion of revenue into free cash flow (helped by the IMG ARENA IP and efficient integration), the high multiple is justifiable. If growth decelerates, multiple compression is the main downside channel.
Catalysts (what will move the stock)
- Q1/Q2 results reflecting faster revenue growth and margin expansion driven by IMG ARENA integration and new product monetization.
- Commercial rollouts of Live Player Markets and 4Sight Streaming (Bundesliga partnership details announced 08/19/2025) that demonstrate measurable ARPU uplift or advertising revenue wins.
- Further share repurchases and evidence of sustainable free cash flow - management repurchased 3M shares as part of a $200M program following a secondary offering in 04/2025.
- Large client renewals or new long-term contracts with sportsbooks or media houses that lock-in revenue for multiple years.
Trade plan (actionable and specific)
Thesis: Buy Sportradar for long-term growth and optionality in sports media - entry at $18.57, stop $16.50, target $30.00 over the long term (180 trading days). The setup pairs a technically oversold entry with tangible operational levers that can re-rate the valuation.
Entry: $18.57 — this is the current price and offers a tight entry with a clear technical anchor near the 52-week low of $17.73.
Stop loss: $16.50 — below the recent $17.73 low. A break under $16.50 would signal momentum failure and potential further downside to prior support zones; exiting there limits capital at risk.
Target: $30.00 in 180 trading days (long term - 180 trading days). Rationale: $30 sits well below the 52-week high of $32.22 and implies a ~61% upside from entry. Achieving this requires the market to re-rate Sportradar on better-than-feared execution and continued margin expansion.
Position sizing & time frame: This is a long-term trade meant to last up to 180 trading days. Hold through two to three major reporting cycles (earnings and quarterly business updates) to allow integration benefits and revenue recognition changes to show in the numbers. Re-assess after each quarterly release; tighten stops if the stock trades above $24 to protect gains.
Technical context
Momentum indicators are mixed: the 9-day EMA ($18.84) sits just above the current price and the MACD shows bearish momentum but with a small negative histogram (-0.128), suggesting limited immediate downside if fundamentals stabilize. Average daily volume (~3.8M) supports liquidity for entering and exiting a position of reasonable size.
Risks and counterarguments
- Execution risk on M&A integration: The IMG ARENA deal is strategically sensible but integration missteps could delay margin improvement or lead to one-time costs that disappoint earnings.
- Competitive pressure: Genius Sports and other data providers are aggressive. A pricing war or loss of a major client could compress revenue or force higher sales/marketing spend.
- Regulatory and integrity risks: Sports betting is subject to shifting regulation across jurisdictions. Changes in licensing or stricter data rules could reduce addressable market or increase compliance costs.
- Valuation sensitivity: At a P/E near 52x, the stock is sensitive to growth misses. Any slowdown from mid-teens revenue growth expectations could cause significant multiple contraction.
- Liquidity/float and selling pressure: There was a notable secondary offering in 04/24/2025 (23M shares) and a portfolio cut by an institutional holder later in the year; renewed selling or insider reductions could pressure the stock despite fundamentals.
Counterargument
The simplest counterargument is valuation: Sportradar already commands a premium multiple that prices in several years of flawless execution. If media monetization proves harder or slower than expected - for example, if Live Player Markets take longer to scale or advertising ARPU is lower than forecast - the stock could trade back toward mid-single-digit EBITDA multiples despite solid underlying revenue. For value investors, that multiple is a reason to wait for clearer proof points.
What would change my mind
I would become neutral or bearish if any of the following occur: a) management withdraws guidance or materially slows growth expectations; b) IMG ARENA integration materially increases net debt or reduces margins; c) sustained downtick in win rates for renewals with major sportsbook customers; or d) the company announces large share issuance that dilutes value without clear strategic justification.
Conclusion
Sportradar is a high-conviction long for 2026 because it pairs recurring, sticky revenue with meaningful upside optionality from media and streaming products. The company has shown 14% top-line growth and substantial margin expansion (29% EBITDA growth and record 29% margins), and recent strategic moves give management clear levers to accelerate free cash flow. The stock is technically attractive at current levels with an RSI in oversold territory and liquidity that allows for a disciplined entry and exit plan.
Trade plan recap: buy at $18.57, stop $16.50, target $30.00 over long term (180 trading days). Manage position size to reflect execution and regulatory risks, and tighten the stop if the market gives a clean re-rate above $24.
Bottom line: If you believe the sports-data oligopoly tightens, media revenue proves real and management executes on integration, Sportradar offers an appealing asymmetric trade in 2026. If those things don't happen, the stock's premium will likely contract quickly.