Hook - Thesis
UP Fintech (TIGR) looks like a classic ‘good company, off the rails technically’ setup. The business has been compounding revenue and profits; management reported revenue growth in excess of 50% year-over-year across the first two reported quarters of 2025 and net income that turned meaningfully positive. Yet the stock is trading closer to its 52-week low than to prior highs as daily volumes have softened and momentum indicators are negative.
The trade is straightforward: use the current weakness as an entry point. At a market cap of about $1.55 billion and a forward-looking multiple near the low-teens (reported P/E about 10.5), UP Fintech already reflects some investor skepticism. That skepticism looks overdone relative to operational metrics: customer counts, deposit inflows and revenue growth are still robust. I propose a tactical long at $8.50 targeting $12.00 with a protective stop at $7.00, sized to fit a medium-risk portfolio and a mid-term horizon of 45 trading days.
What the company does and why the market should care
UP Fintech is an online brokerage focused on global investors via a mobile-first platform. It facilitates equities and other financial instruments across multiple exchanges and has been adding customers at a healthy clip, positioning itself to benefit from any uptick in retail trading activity or renewed investor interest in China-related financial stocks.
The fundamental driver here is volume and account growth. Management reported adding 39,800 new customers with deposits in Q2 2025, taking total funded customers to 1,192,700. Those customer additions drove a 58.7% year-over-year increase in total revenues in Q2 2025, and net income of $41.4 million. Earlier in 2025, Q1 revenue grew 55.3% year-over-year with net income up by 146.7% versus the prior year quarter. Those are solid growth and margin signals for a broker of this scale.
Hard numbers that matter
- Market cap: about $1.546 billion.
- Reported P/E: ~10.54; P/B: ~1.92.
- Fully diluted shares outstanding: ~177.7 million; float ~171.0 million.
- 52-week range: low $6.38 - high $13.55.
- Average daily volume (two-week): ~3.23 million; 30-day average ~4.17 million. Recent single-day volumes have dropped to around 1.09 million.
- Customer count (Q2 2025): 1,192,700 funded customers after adding 39,800 in the quarter.
Those numbers paint a picture of a fast-growing fintech that has already begun to show the economics of scale (profitability) while still trading well below peak multiple levels assigned earlier in the run. The market is pricing in slower throughput and possibly macro/regulatory risk, but it is not pricing in a return to the high-growth trend seen across early 2025.
Valuation framing
At a $1.55 billion market cap and a P/E of about 10.5, UP Fintech sits at a valuation that is arguably conservative for a broker with mid-50% revenue growth and positive net income. The stock is trading substantially below its 52-week high of $13.55; $12.00 is still below that high and represents a multiple expansion trade back toward a more neutral growth multiple. Given the revenue growth and recent profitability, the stock merits a re-rating if growth sustains and trading volumes recover.
Put differently: the company’s fundamentals support a mid-teens multiple in a benign macro environment; trading at ~10x suggests an asymmetry where a reacceleration of growth and a pickup in retail flows could produce outsized upside while a severe deterioration in volumes would be the primary path to the downside.
Technical and market context
Technicals are currently against the stock: the price is below the 10-, 20- and 50-day averages; RSI sits around 41 and MACD shows bearish momentum. Short interest has come down from peaks observed in late 2024 and early 2025 (settlements above 7–8 million shares) to roughly 4.45 million as of mid-January 2026, reducing the near-term squeeze potential but still indicating notable short activity. Average daily volumes have declined recently, which widens intraday swings and makes timing important.
Catalysts (what could push this trade to target)
- Renewed retail trading flows tied to macro or China-specific stimulus that raises transaction volume.
- Any operational updates or product rollouts that increase monetization per account or reduce costs.
- Sequential re-acceleration in customer additions and deposits, reversing the recent volume softness.
- Positive market sentiment toward Hong Kong/China listings that often lifts US-listed China fintech peers.
Trade plan
Direction: Long
Entry: $8.50 (enter on a pullback or limit order close to this level)
Target: $12.00
Stop-loss: $7.00
Time horizon: mid term (45 trading days) — I expect the combination of catalysts and mean-reversion in multiple/flow dynamics to play out within roughly two months.
Rationale: $8.50 is a practical entry below the current quote that gives room for a short-term technical shakeout while still controlling cost basis. The $12.00 target sits below the 52-week high and assumes multiple expansion and modest recovery in trading volumes. The $7.00 stop limits downside below a clear support area and preserves capital in case retail activity contracts further or the stock re-tests its 52-week low.
Risks and counterarguments
- Volume-driven business risk: UP Fintech’s economics depend heavily on trading volume and customer activity. A persistent downturn in retail trading activity or a shift of flows to competitors could sharply cut revenue and margins.
- Regulatory and geopolitical risk: As a China/HK-related fintech with US-listed ADSs, the company is exposed to policy actions, cross-border scrutiny and potential regulatory changes that could depress investor appetite.
- Execution risk: Management could slow product launches or fail to monetize new customers at projected rates; any negative surprises on monetization would compress earnings.
- Dilution risk: The company completed a follow-on in late 2024 that included full exercise of the over-allotment. Future capital raises would dilute shareholders and could weigh on the share price.
- Technical and liquidity risk: Recent average volumes have softened — smaller daily prints make the stock more susceptible to gapping and wider intraday swings, complicating exits and stops.
Counterargument: One could reasonably argue that lower trading volumes are a secular shift rather than a temporary soft patch. If retail participation trends down globally or regulatory pressure increases on China-listed fintechs, the company’s growth runway could be structurally impaired. That scenario would invalidate the re-rating thesis and justify a much lower multiple.
What would change my mind
I would reconsider this trade and the bullish bias if any of the following occur: a) management reports a clear deterioration in funded customer growth or meaningful declines in average revenue per user on results days; b) a new regulatory action specifically targets offshore brokers or ADS structures; c) the company signals a capital raise that meaningfully enlarges share count beyond current levels; or d) a failure to regain volume and deposits within the next two reported quarters.
Conclusion
UP Fintech is a growth-oriented online broker that has started to show profitable unit economics and scale. The market is currently discounting the stock due to soft trading volumes and negative technical momentum, but the business metrics from early-to-mid 2025 argue that the company still has an operational runway. The proposed mid-term trade - entry $8.50, target $12.00, stop $7.00 over roughly 45 trading days - is a controlled, catalyst-driven way to express a view that fundamentals will reassert themselves and that the market will re-rate the shares. Size the position appropriately and monitor quarterly customer and volume metrics closely; those data points will be the primary validators for the upside case.