Hook / Thesis
VEON gives you Kyivstar exposure with multiple near-term, tangible growth catalysts while trading at an attractive valuation. Kyivstar - VEON’s largest and strategically most important asset - has rolled out Starlink Direct to Cell to more than 3.0 million registered users and just closed on a 12.9 MW solar facility to shore up energy costs and resilience. Combine those operational wins with a market cap of about $3.73 billion and a trailing P/E near 5.8, and you have the classic growth-at-a-reasonable-price setup.
We see a defined, actionable trade: initiate a long at $54.00, target $64.00 (the 52-week high), and place a protective stop at $48.00. The trade is oriented as a long-term tactical position to capture the next phase of Kyivstar’s monetization and VEON’s re-rating as visibility improves via the Nasdaq Global Select listing and upcoming results on 03/16/2026.
Business overview - what investors should care about
VEON is a holding company for telecom and digital services across emerging markets - Pakistan, Ukraine (Kyivstar), Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Bangladesh, and smaller operations. Kyivstar is the flagship in Ukraine: the brand is the market leader and the vehicle for recent strategic initiatives.
Why this matters: telecoms in VEON’s footprint are hybrid cash-generative businesses with meaningful optionality from digital services and enterprise offerings. For Kyivstar specifically, two operational developments stand out as potential margin and revenue drivers:
- Starlink Direct-to-Cell uptake - over 3.0 million registered users since launch on 11/24/2025, representing more than 10% of Kyivstar’s mobile base and producing >1.2 million SMS messages so far. This is real monetizable usage in regions where terrestrial networks are constrained.
- Energy resilience - acquisition of a 12.9 MW solar facility to reduce power cost volatility and improve network availability in contested regions.
Supportive numbers and valuation framing
Snapshot metrics that anchor the trade:
- Market cap roughly $3.73 billion.
- Trailing P/E about 5.8 and a P/B of ~2.7 - cheap relative to global telco norms and especially cheap for an operator with visible growth initiatives and improving investor visibility after an upgrade to the Nasdaq Global Select Market.
- 52-week trading range: low $34.55, high $64.00 - the $64 level is our logical target because it represents the most recent high water mark where sentiment and headline-driven flows re-accelerated.
- Share dynamics - float and shares outstanding are both ~69.15 million, supporting reasonable liquidity (average 2-week volume ~85k) and limited free-float dilution risk in the near term.
Put simply, VEON is trading at a valuation that implies little growth premium. Yet Kyivstar’s Starlink uptake, energy capex avoidance and digital payment rollouts in other markets suggest upside to both top-line growth and operating margins. The market cap and P/E suggest that much of the geopolitical and macro risk is already priced in - that creates the GARP opportunity.
Technicals and market context
Technicals are constructive but not extreme. Price sits near $54.00, above the 50-day EMA (~$52.57) and close to the 10-day SMA (~$54.27). RSI is moderate at ~56.8 indicating room for further upside without being overbought. MACD shows a slightly negative histogram, which means short-term momentum is mixed; this argues for patience and a defined entry.
Trade plan
Entry: $54.00 (market or limit).
Target: $64.00.
Stop-loss: $48.00.
Risk level: medium.
Trade direction: long.
Horizon: long term (180 trading days) - expect this position to play out over multiple quarters as catalysts materialize and headline risk subsides.
Why this plan? Entry at $54 captures the current market price while respecting near-term technicals. The $64 target is anchored to the 52-week high and reflects a re-rating scenario where multiple catalysts converge - Starlink monetization, improved energy costs from solar, and improved investor visibility following the Nasdaq Global Select listing. The $48 stop sits below the 50-day and 100-day technical bands, giving the trade room to breathe while limiting downside if momentum breaks.
Catalysts (2-5)
- 03/16/2026 - Q4 and FY2025 results release for VEON and Kyivstar. Beat-and-raise on revenue, EBITDA margin expansion or clear Starlink monetization metrics could re-rate the stock.
- Continued Starlink Direct-to-Cell uptake - every incremental million users materially strengthens the argument that Kyivstar can monetize alternative connectivity streams, particularly in underserved regions.
- Operational synergies from the 12.9 MW solar facility - measurable reduction in energy costs or outage-driven churn would appear in margin expansion metrics.
- Regulatory wins in other markets - e.g., Banglalink’s payment service ramp could add additional high-margin digital revenue streams.
- Institutional flows and improved visibility from Nasdaq Global Select listing - should increase demand and reduce the valuation discount applied to emerging-market telecoms.
Risks and counterarguments
Investors should weigh several meaningful risks before positioning:
- Geopolitical and operating risk in Ukraine - conflict or infrastructure damage could degrade revenues and increase capex and opex. Kyivstar’s footprint in contested regions is both a strategic asset and a source of volatility.
- FX and macro volatility - adverse currency moves in local markets can compress reported margins when consolidated and could pressure earnings if not hedged effectively.
- Execution risk on new services - Starlink Direct-to-Cell adoption is promising, but monetization and margin contribution are still nascent. The service could remain a subsidy or fail to scale ARPU as hoped.
- Regulatory and political risk in other markets - telecom regulation, licensing or restrictions on digital payments (Bangladesh, Pakistan, Kazakhstan) could slow new revenue streams.
- Liquidity and market microstructure - average volumes are modest (~85k over two weeks), creating potential for sharper moves on headline risk and making precise execution a consideration for larger positions.
Counterargument: The market could be right that geopolitical, FX and regulatory risks justify a depressed multiple. If Kyivstar’s earnings prove more volatile than guided, or if Starlink monetization stalls and proves costly, VEON’s P/E could compress further. In that scenario, patience would be required and additional downside to the $34 area remains possible.
What would change my mind
I would exit or materially reduce exposure if any of the following occur:
- Q4/FY2025 results (03/16/2026) show a meaningful revenue or EBITDA miss driven by customer churn in Kyivstar or substantially higher energy costs despite the solar purchase.
- Starlink metrics show weak engagement-to-revenue conversion - e.g., if registered users do not translate into ARPU uplift or require high subsidies to retain use.
- Material new regulatory constraints in core markets that impair digital payment initiatives or cap wholesale rates for mobile services.
- Price decisively breaks and holds below $48, confirming a technical breakdown and signaling that the market is repricing risk materially higher.
Conclusion
VEON is a pragmatic GARP play: you get exposure to Kyivstar’s operational resilience and early monetization of non-traditional connectivity at a valuation that leaves room for re-rating if execution holds. The long-term (180 trading days) trade outlined above balances upside capture with a disciplined stop to protect capital. The upcoming 03/16/2026 results, continued Starlink adoption, and demonstrated energy-cost benefits are the primary levers that will either validate this thesis or force a reassessment.
If you prefer less headline risk, consider starting with a smaller position size ahead of the results and scale into strength after positive disclosures. For traders comfortable with the geopolitical and execution complexity, the entry at $54.00 with a $64.00 target and $48.00 stop provides a clear risk-reward framework to act.