Wolfe Research has raised its price target for Nvidia to $275 from $250, arguing that the shift to rack-scale systems, increasing average selling prices (ASPs) and durable margins will push earnings well beyond current consensus.
Under Wolfe's framework, Nvidia books revenue when it delivers completed boards to cloud service providers - after chip manufacturing and packaging at TSM and subsequent board assembly at Foxconn. Those finished boards, Wolfe's supply-chain checks indicate, represent roughly 75% of the final rack price.
Wolfe cites reported rack pricing of about $3 million for the GB200 NVL72 and $4.3 million for the GB300 NVL72. For the next-generation Rubin racks, Wolfe sees reported pricing in a range of $5 million to $6 million.
The research house estimates that Blackwell rack shipments reached approximately 1,000 units per week by the end of calendar 2025 and that this cadence will be maintained through 2026. That weekly pace corresponds to an annual run rate of roughly 50,000 to 60,000 racks for the year.
Wolfe expects Rubin to begin ramping in the second half of 2026 without delays, helped by design changes that simplify assembly, and models a similar 1,000-per-week run rate for Rubin once it is scaled. Its 2026 forecast calls for about 55,000 Blackwell racks and 20,000 Rubin racks. For 2027, Wolfe models a shift in the mix to about 55,000 Rubin racks and 15,000 Rubin Ultra racks.
Those rack volumes convert into roughly 7.2 million data center GPU units in 2026, a 35% increase year on year, and about 9 million units in 2027, a 25% rise. Wolfe projects data center revenue to top $450 billion in 2027, driven by unit growth coupled with approximately 20% higher ASPs as deployments move from Blackwell to Rubin.
For Rubin Ultra, Wolfe assumes a rack price near $10 million, reflecting what it characterizes as a doubling of GPUs per rack. The firm notes this assumption is conservative; every additional $1 million per rack above its estimates could add about $10 billion to $12 billion in revenue.
On margins, Wolfe expects Nvidia to preserve pricing power and maintain gross margins around 75%, pointing to sustained generation-on-generation performance improvements and limited high-end competitive pressure. Its 2027 projections include $457 billion in data center revenue and $11.50 in earnings per share in the base case, with a bull-case scenario of $500 billion in data center revenue and $12 in EPS. The updated target effectively values the stock at roughly 23 times earnings under Wolfe's bull-case EPS.
Context and implications
Wolfe's view centers on an ongoing mix shift toward rack-scale systems and higher-priced configurations, which would buoy Nvidia's unit volume, ASPs and margins. The analysis ties manufacturing and assembly partners into the revenue recognition pathway and treats rack pricing as a principal revenue driver for data center results.