Stock Markets January 25, 2026

Weekly Street Calls: Analysts Reprice Ciena, Back Ulta, Kick Off Coverage of Palantir and Lift Starbucks

A compact recap of the major analyst moves and the data points driving them across optical networking, retail beauty, AI software and coffee chains

By Leila Farooq CIEN ULTA PLTR SBUX
Weekly Street Calls: Analysts Reprice Ciena, Back Ulta, Kick Off Coverage of Palantir and Lift Starbucks
CIEN ULTA PLTR SBUX

This week's analyst activity covered a mix of upgrades, a downgrade and a fresh initiation: Ciena was trimmed to Neutral on backlog and valuation concerns; Raymond James pushed Ulta to Strong Buy after modest EPS tweaks and strategic initiatives; PhillipCapital started Palantir with a Buy and a DCF-based $208 target following robust revenue growth; and William Blair upgraded Starbucks to Outperform as comp trends and margin restoration take center stage. Markets were closed Monday for the federal holiday.

Key Points

  • Bank of America downgraded Ciena to Neutral with a $260 price target, citing backlog risk and a rich valuation amid hyperscaler-driven revenue acceleration.
  • Raymond James upgraded Ulta Beauty to Strong Buy and raised its FY26 EPS estimate slightly to $28.60, pointing to operational initiatives, loyalty and digital pushes as growth levers.
  • PhillipCapital initiated Palantir at Buy with a $208 DCF-based target after forecasting 47% revenue growth to $4.2 billion and notable commercial expansion; William Blair upgraded Starbucks to Outperform on improving comps and a multiyear margin recovery plan.

This is the weekly recap of Wall Street analyst notes affecting key public companies across networking, retail, software and consumer services. Markets were closed on Monday for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday.


Ciena Corp. (CIEN) - BofA lowers rating to Neutral, $260 price objective

On Tuesday, Bank of America reduced its rating on Ciena to Neutral and maintained a $260 price objective. The analysts point to an elevated valuation and potential backlog risk despite what has been an extraordinary revenue acceleration tied to hyperscaler spending.

Ciena's shares have surged to levels that reflect very aggressive growth expectations, trading near a 40x forward price-to-earnings multiple - roughly double the firm’s decade-long average. The rally is tied to hyperscaler demand that the note says pushed revenue growth from roughly 8% to an anticipated 30% in the first quarter of fiscal 2026, backed by a reported $5 billion backlog that underpins next year’s sales.

The research note highlights Ciena’s leadership in certain optical technologies, including scale-across deployments that are projected by the analysts to expand 11-fold to $808 million by 2026 and the company’s strength in 800G platforms. Ciena’s market share in cloud-provider spending is described as increasing from 18% in 2024 to 22% through the first nine months of 2025, while the firm’s RLS systems and WaveLogic 6 Nano running on a 3nm digital signal processor are said to give it a 50% foothold among cloud customers and an edge in power efficiency versus peers Cisco and Marvell.

But the note cautions that the very thing underpinning this run-up - a large backlog and outsized near-term growth - carries precedent for downside. The analysts recall an earlier cycle in which backlog coverage of revenues fell dramatically, declining from a level that had covered 96% of revenues before collapsing by 38%, an episode that coincided with a roughly 12% share-price drop. With shares now trading at a roughly 45x forward P/E at peak growth assumptions, Bank of America says the valuation already embeds a significant amount of optimism, and downgrades to Neutral leave room for only modest upside to the $260 target.


Ulta Beauty Inc. (ULTA) - Raymond James raises to Strong Buy, $790 target

Raymond James upgraded Ulta Beauty to Strong Buy from Outperform on Wednesday and increased its price target to $790, while nudging its fiscal 2026 earnings-per-share estimate to $28.60 from $28.51. The firm credits a slate of operational initiatives that it expects will lift growth and profitability after recent investments.

The analysts cite management changes, tweaks to the loyalty program, enhancements to digital channels, and new merchandising in Wellness and Marketplace categories as drivers of the sequel to last year’s rebuild. They also identify plans to deploy deeper data analytics, pursue agentic AI initiatives and begin limited international expansion as additional levers to expand earnings without relying on multiple expansion.

Raymond James frames the view as a progression from earlier investment toward harvest, where store operations, ecommerce and early global tests increasingly contribute to the top line. At the same time, the firm flags the usual retail hazards: intensifying competitive offers in beauty, the risk of U.S. demand weakening, margin pressure from rising costs, or unsuccessful rollouts in new markets. Despite these uncertainties, the brokerage sees Ulta’s dual exposure to premium and value shoppers and a strong loyalty base as supporting the upgrade.


Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) - PhillipCapital initiates at Buy, $208 target

On Thursday, PhillipCapital began coverage of Palantir with a Buy rating and a $208 price target derived from a discounted cash flow model. The initiation follows a strong revenue and profitability showing that the analysts say supports a positive view.

The note projects group revenue rising 47% year-over-year to $4.2 billion for fiscal 2025, with commercial revenue accelerating faster at 51% compared with 43% growth for government sales. Net profit is highlighted as expanding about 1.9 times year-over-year. In the United States, which accounts for roughly two-thirds of Palantir’s revenue, growth is said to have accelerated by 66% year-over-year, helped by continued government-related spending as well as expanding commercial adoption.

PhillipCapital points to commercial deals roughly doubling in third-quarter 2025 amid product advances described as AIP and ontology capabilities that bolster enterprise productivity. The firm’s DCF that produced the $208 target applies assumptions including an 8.3% weighted average cost of capital, a 4.2% risk-free rate and an 8% perpetual growth rate. The coverage note also observes that Palantir trades at a forward P/E near 170x, below a cited 190x deviation comparator, which the analysts view as creating room for a re-rating should fundamentals continue to progress.


Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) - William Blair upgrades to Outperform

William Blair upgraded Starbucks to Outperform on Friday, with the upgrade tied to a recent rebound in domestic comparable-store sales and a forecast for margin recovery that should unfold over multiple years.

The bank points out that Starbucks posted its first domestic comparable-store sales gain in two years in the December quarter, setting the stage for a positive fiscal 2026 outlook. The more critical issue, in William Blair’s view, is margin restoration. Americas operating margins fell to 13.4% in 2025 from a peak around 20.8% and face headwinds from an expected roughly $500 million increase in labor costs next year.

William Blair is looking for details at Starbucks’ January 29 investor day and expects the company to pursue a combination of G&A reductions, productivity gains and modest same-store-sales improvement. Under a scenario that assumes global unit growth near 3% annually and low-single-digit comparable sales, the firm posits consolidated margins recovering toward 2023 levels by 2030 and a 15-20% compound annual growth rate for EPS over five years. The research note also highlights a pathway to a $140-plus share price by 2029 at a 30x multiple on more than $4.70 in EPS, implying a 10% annual unit-growth rate and upside if comparable sales accelerate more rapidly. William Blair frames current performance as a sales recovery that outpaces margin repair, with meaningful profit benefits arriving in earnest by 2027.


ProPicks AI note and subscription messaging

The week's wrap also references a model called ProPicks AI that evaluates CIEN among thousands of companies each month across a broad set of financial metrics to surface ideas based on fundamentals, momentum and valuation. The note promotes the model’s record of past winners and offers readers the option to learn whether CIEN appears in any current ProPicks strategies. A promotional line at the end of the week advertised a New Year’s sale offering 50% off.

Risks

  • Ciena’s outsized valuation coupled with potential backlog deterioration could lead to sharp share-price reversals, affecting the telecommunications equipment sector.
  • Ulta faces competitive pressure in the beauty market, potential softness in U.S. consumer demand, and cost or execution risks from international expansion, which could impact retail and consumer discretionary stocks.
  • Starbucks confronts margin compression in the Americas and an expected roughly $500 million rise in labor costs next year, posing risks to near-term profit recovery in the consumer services sector.

More from Stock Markets

SpaceX Acquires xAI, Eyes Solar-Powered Orbital AI Data Centers Feb 2, 2026 Nvidia Shares Slip After Report That OpenAI Is Seeking Alternative AI Chips Feb 2, 2026 U.S. Markets Close Higher as Industrials and Consumer Stocks Lead Gains Feb 2, 2026 Musk Moves to Combine SpaceX and xAI into a $1.25 Trillion Entity Ahead of Planned IPO Feb 2, 2026 OpenAI Seeks Alternatives to Some Nvidia Chips as Inference Needs Shift Feb 2, 2026